Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea Odds
| Nottingham Forest Odds | +220 |
| Chelsea Odds | +110 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -225 / +175 |
Chelsea look to keep their good run of form going when they travel to the City Ground to take on Nottingham Forest.
Nottingham Forest got a massive win last weekend in their quest for survival beating Sheffield United 3-1. It's pretty simple for Forest. As long as Luton Town do not beat West Ham, they just need a result from this match to secure their spot in the Premier League next season.
They pulled off a huge upset at Stamford Bridge earlier this year and are capable of doing the same here at the City Ground.
Chelsea are flying high at the moment after back-to-back wins against London rivals Tottenham and West Ham. The Blues have now positioned themselves to potentially get a spot in the Europa League next season if they can over take Newcastle, but to do that they are going to need all three points here on Saturday.
Here's how I'm betting Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea.
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest have been going through a bad run in terms of results, but the underlying metrics have actually been pretty impressive, especially defensively.
They are still playing a passive low block under Nuno Espirto Santo, it's just a different structure more of a 5-4-1 than the 5-3-2 they played under Steve Cooper. However, since the beginning of March, Nottingham Forest have allowed 1.08 npxG per 90 minutes, which is the fourth-best mark in the Premier League during that time frame.
They also have been creating a lot of chances in transition too because they have a +4.5 npxGD during that same time frame, but they have lost five matches. Then you compare that to Chelsea, who have a +6.5 npxGD since the beginning of March, but they’ve only lost one match.
They are really good in their low defensive block too. The Trees are second in the Premier League in final third to box entry conversion rate, allowing their opponents inside their penalty area at only a 25.7% rate once they enter the final third. Manchester City found that out first hand when Forest limited them to a 21.3% final third to box entry conversion rate and just 0.9 expected goals.
Nottingham Forest are about as direct as it gets in the Premier League and also has the pace with Morgan Gibbs-White, Callum Hudson-Odoi and Anthony Elanga, etc. to give Chelsea a lot of problems.
Since Espírito Santo has taken over, the offensive performances have improved, as they are averaging 1.49 xG per 90 minutes and just created 2.0 expected goals against Manchester City two weeks ago.
Chelsea
There have been some real tactical improvements with Chelsea over the recent weeks, most notably in their build up. They have been starting Chalobah at right back out of necessity, but it has allowed them to either utilize a 4-2 with Gallagher and Caicedo as the double pivot or a 3-2 with Cucurella inverting into the midfield.
They were doing a fantastic job interchanging these two structures over the weekend against West Ham, but it wasn’t really that effective against Spurs with their biggest chances coming off set pieces and against Arsenal they also really struggled to build through their press.
Chelsea have a clear weakness defensively and that is defending in transition, which is a problem here against Nottingham Forest given how direct of a style they play. As you've seen in recent matches against Tottenham and Manchester City that when the Blues are able to sit in a low defensive block and play in transition, they are a much better team.
Chelsea are dealing with a lot of injuries to their midfield and back line. Enzo Fernandez, Malo Gusto, Thiago Siliva, Ben Chillwell and Levi Colwil are all going to miss this match, which is has shown itself to a problem because over their last 14 matches, Chelsea are allowing 1.84 xG per 90 minutes.
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
Prediction
There is a pretty big difference between the performances of these two sides at home versus on the road. Chelsea at Stamford Bridge have a +20.3 xGD, but they have a -3.2 xGD away from home, while Nottingham Forest have played really well at the City Ground, putting up a +3.3 xGD.
One thing that has been very true about Chelsea this season is they are not the most effective team breaking down good low blocks and they are much better playing in transition. Nottingham Forest have been the best passive low block in the Premier League over the past two months, so I think the Blues are going to have real difficulties here at the City Ground.
The flip side is that Chelsea have struggled defending in transition, which is bad news against Forest, who play extremely direct and fast with great ball carriers and creators in transition.
Given how well Forest have played at home this season, I like the value on their spread +0.5 at -112.
