Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace Odds
| Nottingham Forest Odds | +125 |
| Crystal Palace Odds | +230 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +107 / -138 |
Nottingham Forest will be searching for a result that could send the Trees back above the relegation line in their first game since receiving a four-point sanction when they host Crystal Palace on Saturday.
Forest drew Luton 1-1 away in its last action before the international break, and they were perhaps unfortunate not to take all three points from Kenilworth Road after creating the majority of the game's good chances. Two days later, the Trees and manager Nuno Espirito Santo learned they would be docked four points for violating Financial Fair Play regulations that dropped them a point beneath the Hatters and into 18th place in the table.
Meanwhile, any serious relegation concerns for Palace appear to have been short-lived after taking points in three of their last four since the resignation of former manager Roy Hodgson. And although Palace have dealt with an extended break after their game two weekends ago was postponed because of an FA Cup conflict, that training time will have been welcomed as an opportunity for new manager Oliver Glasner to install more tactical details.
These sides played to a 0-0 draw in their last meeting at Selhurst Park back in October, a game in which neither current manager was in charge.
Nottingham Forest
If Espirito Santo really has made an improvement upon what former manager Steve Cooper was accomplishing earlier this year, now is the time when the evidence would surface.
So far, Forest have taken only 11 points from its 12 league games with their new boss, only very slightly better than the 14 earned in 16 games under their fold one. But it's been an usually difficult stretch of the schedule for the Trees, with eight matches against top-flight opponents in those 12 games, including three games against the current top four.
By contrast, Forest will face six bottom-half opponents in their last 10 league games, starting against Palace and then at home against Fulham next weekend.
Under both managers, Forest have been more productive in front of goal at home than the analytics suggest they should be, scoring multiple goals in exactly half their league home games since earning promotion prior to the 2022-2023 season.
If anything, that trend has accelerated under Espirito Santo, with the Trees scoring two or more in four of their six league fixtures at the City ground since the manager swap. But that could be hard to replicate on this occasion, with strikers Chris Wood and Taiwo Awoniyi both doubtful for the contest. Awonyi's health in particular has proven crucial to the Trees' form over the last year-and-a-half.
Crystal Palace
Palace's performances have appeared to improve qualitatively since Glasner's takeover, although the end results haven't quite reflected that.
The Eagles opened the new era with a 3-0 win over Burnley that felt more or less guaranteed once the visitors were reduced to 10 men. But after a solid defensive effort, the flood gates opened late in a 2-1 loss at Tottenham Hotspur, and did so again in a 1-1 draw against Luton, which scored a smash-and-grab late equalizer on an otherwise dominant day for the hosts at Selhurst Park.
Eberechi Eze was one of the culprits, failing to score on six shot attempts against the Hatters. Perhaps that was some delayed rust in his second game back from a layoff of a couple months, after he scored an excellent free kick goal in the loss to Spurs.
He remains the most dangerous attacker who will see the field for either side on Saturday, however, with four of his six Premier League goals coming in his last five appearances.
Palace are still waiting on Michael Olise to return to his post on the opposite flank. He's finally back in training, but still about two games out from an on-field return according to Glasner.
Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace
Prediction
If Awonyi or even Wood were healthy, the play here would be on the Forest team total above 1.5 goals. They aren't, which mandates finding a different angle in a game where it's hard to determine whether either team's track record should apply.
But we can probably take two things as likely true: Neither of these teams should be trusted to keep a clean sheet, and neither are likely to score a lot of goals. So while it's not a terribly scientific approach, that lands you on a same-game parlay of both teams scoring in a game with 3.5 goals or fewer that feels good for the price.
It's a wager is one that has cashed in four of Palace's six away matches against bottom-half opposition and three of Forest's six home games in similar spots. That reinforces what is admittedly a speculative play at +210 odds and an implied 32.6% probability.
