Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace Prediction, Pick, Premier League Odds

Nottingham Forest host Crystal Palace in a pivotal match at the City Ground on Monday afternoon.

Nottingham Forest went into the international break getting a crucial 1-1 draw with Chelsea. The Trees have been very impressive to begin the season and are in 12th place in the table with only one loss on the season.

Crystal Palace are struggling right now, as the Eagles only have three points through their first seven matches. Oliver Glasner's tactics set the Premier League on fire toward the end of last season, but so far they have flopped early on in 2024.

Here is my Nottingham Forest vs. Crystal Palace prediction.

Nottingham Forest vs. Crystal Palace Prediction, Pick, Premier League Odds

Monday, Oct. 21

3 p.m. ET

USA Network

Nottingham Forest Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-0.5 +150	2.5 +110o / -140u	+150

Crystal Palace Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+0.5 -190	2.5 +110o / -140u	+190

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute PREMIER-LEAGUE odds here.

• Nottingham Forest vs. Crystal Palace moneyline odds: Nottingham Forest +150, Crystal Palace +190, Draw +235
• Nottingham Forest vs. Crystal Palace over/under: 2.5 goals (over +110, under -140)
• Nottingham Forest vs. Crystal Palace pick: Draw

I am backing the draw in Crystal Palace vs. Nottingham Forest on the three-way moneyline.

Nottingham Forest Preview

Nottingham Forest are a really good defensive team and it's the reason why they have only lost one match this season. Nottingham Forest are allowing the lowest xG per shot, the lowest percentage of shots inside the penalty area and have allowed the third-lowest amount of expected goals behind only Liverpool and Manchester City. The main reason for that is they are one of the most physical teams sitting in their mid block and are really difficult to play through. They have the second-highest ground duel win rate in the Premier League, as they don’t let anyone play through the middle.

Not letting teams get numerical advantages in the middle is important, but if you are going to be a passive team you have to make sure you are not allowing teams to get inside your penalty area at a high rate. Nottingham Forest are one of the best teams in the Premier League at doing just that, ranking second in final third to box entry conversion rate allowed.

Nottingham Forest really haven't been that good of an offensive team, however. Their last five matches they have failed to average over one non-penalty expected goal because they are struggling to generate chances from open play. A lot of times their best chances come off of transition breaks or off of crosses, which really isn't going to work against Crystal Palace.

The biggest advantage that Nottingham Forest are going to have in this game is off of set pieces. The Trees have scored three goals and have the seventh-highest xG per set piece this season, while Crystal Palace are 19th in xG per set piece allowed.

Crystal Palace Preview

Things are not going very well for Crystal Palace right now and it's because their offense hasn't been able to generate a lot of high quality chances.

The Eagles do a decent job of getting through the first couple of phases of build up, but once they reach the final third everything seems to fall apart. They are only averaging 1.05 npxG per 90 minutes and have the third-lowest xG per shot in the Premier League. Eberechi Eze has been the one getting most of their shots averaging almost four per 90 minutes, but most of them have come from outside the box.

There are also some issues with Crystal Palace's defensive structure. They are playing a 5-3-2 mid to low block basically against everyone because their press has been completely ineffective. They are dead last in turning opponents over in dangerous areas at the lowest rate in the Premier League right now, but their average defensive line is right at the Premier League average. They also are getting overloaded and allowing way too much freedom for their in the half space. Below is a good example of what they were allowing to Manchester United and Liverpool pretty regularly when those teams were building up from deep.

If you are going to press at all, the fullbacks have to come up and aid in the press otherwise you get consistently overloaded in wide areas, which is happening every match to Crystal Palace.

They are doing a good job defending in their own final third when they do settle into their defensive block. Palace are denying space through the middle and forcing teams out wide, which has proven to be effective because teams have not been able to beat them with crosses as Crystal Palace are allowing the lowest percentage of crosses to be completed into their penalty area.

Nottingham Forest vs. Crystal Palace Prediction

This would be a really good spot to back Nottingham Forest, but they are likely not going to have their best player available. Morgan Gibbs-White is doubtful to play in this match, as he's dealing with an ankle injury. The lone match that he was absent for this year was against Fulham and Forest were only able to create 0.8 expected goals off of 11 shots.

Without their best creator in the middle, Nottingham Forest switched to a 4-4-2 on that day to try and play more direct, which I am not sure is going to work against Palace since most of their chances are going to have to be created via crosses, which Crystal Palace are so good at defending.

I think this game is going to be the same result as the previous two meetings, so I like the value on the draw.

Pick: Draw (+235 via BetRivers)

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