Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool Odds
| Nottingham Forest Odds | +420 |
| Liverpool Odds | -170 |
| Draw | +330 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -218 / +161 |
After winning the League Cup final over Chelsea and advancing to the quarterfinals of the FA Cup, Liverpool finally return to league play to try and keep their grasp on the top spot in the table when they visit Nottingham Forest on Saturday.
The Reds enter the weekend clinging to a one-point lead over Manchester City with both teams sitting on 12 games left to play in the league schedule. And the lack of healthy bodies means that, while manager Jurgen Klopp tried his best to rotate his squad in the FA Cup midweek 3-0 win over Southampton, there are bound to be tired bodies in the dressing room.
But they may feel more positive than a Forest side who lost 4-2 at Villa Park on the weekend and 1-0 at home to Manchester United in the FA Cup. In between, the Trees learned their battle for PL survival had become more complicated after the league returned four of the previous 10 points it had docked Everton for violating Financial Fair Play regulations.
Liverpool earned a 3-0 league win over Forest in the sides' previous league meeting back on October 29 when the Trees were managed by Steve Cooper.
Here is how I'm betting Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool.
Nottingham Forest
Nuno Espirito Santo took the reins about a month after that previous defeat, and since doing so Forest have been decidedly more goal-dangerous.
In terms of league play, the Trees have found the net in nine consecutive matches under Espirito Santo and scored multiples on seven of those occasions. They've taken only 10 points from those nine contests, which despite sounding unimpressive, is still an improvement on the 14 taken from 17 games under Cooper.
In those nine games, Forest have conceded 20 times on 14.6 expected goals allowed to opponents. But it's difficult to say if that's simply a product of variance or sloppy defending.
The Trees have had a bit of a revolving door at goalkeeper all season. And apparent injuries to the defensive-minded Ivorian trio of Willy Boly, Ibrahim Sangare and Ola Aina since their return from their African Cup of Nations triumph have made it nearly two months since any of the trio has contributed on the field.
Taiwon Awonyi has scored twice in five appearances since his unexpectedly early return from a groin injury early last month, and Callum Hudson-Odoi had scored in three straight matches before the Villa defeat.
Liverpool
After Jurgen Klopp somehow engineered back-to-back cup wins without the injured, attack-minded trio of Mo Salah, Darwin Nunez and Dominik Szoboszlai, the latter two have returned to training ahead of Saturday's league fixture.
But the Reds are going to have to get healthier still if they are to manage the glut of games facing them shortly on three competitive fronts — the league, the UEFA Europa League and the FA Cup.
Saturday marks the beginning of six matches before the March international break, with an itinerary that includes a visit from second-place Manchester City in the league, a trip to the Czech Republic and then a much shorter journey to Manchester United for their FA Cup Quarterfinal.
The last time Salah was able to contribute, he scored the third goal in a comfortable 4-1 away win at Brentford to extend the Reds' away form to five victories out of their last six league fixtures. Even so, Liverpool's 25 points taken away from Anfield is only third-best in the PL behind City's 28 away points and Arsenal's 26, with each on 13 away matches.
The good news on that front is Liverpool have already visited both of those challengers in the title race, with Aston Villa the only side in the current top five still remaining on the Reds' away schedule. But this will probably be the heaviest favorite they are on the road for the remainder of the league campaign, with trickier trips to Fulham, Everton, Manchester United and West Ham also to follow.
Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool
Prediction
The lurking variable in Espirito Santo's performance is that Forest has faced mostly top-half opposition during his short tenure, with Bournemouth the only exception. And the Trees' home defeat to the Cherries came with 10 men on the field for the majority.
So you might deduce that the material improvement has been better than the points per game have shown, even if there have been some frustrating near misses.
That's not quite enough to sway me into backing the Trees to take a point or more here. But it will see me backing a closely contested match in some form, especially given Liverpool's squad limitations.
My choice is to parlay a wager on both teams to score with a bet on under 4.5 at the price of +138 and an implied 42% probability. It's a wager that has cashed in nine of Liverpool's 13 league away matches. And while it's a very small sample, it has also come good in two of three home game under Espirito Santo in the league when both teams have finished with 11 men.
