Nottingham Forest vs Man United Odds
| Nottingham Forest Odds | +210 |
| Man United Odds | +120 |
| Draw | +270 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -162 / +120 |
Man United roared back from 2-0 down at home on Boxing Day against Aston Villa to steal all three points and win the match at home, 3-2. The Red Devils closed a favorite in that match and actually created fewer chances as a whole than their opponent, but the market has given them a solid bump in their chances of winning this tricky away fixture at Nottingham Forest on Saturday.
One half of great play from United may have fixed the temporary issues at the club, but the reality is that we've seen this before from Erik ten Hag's side. Just a few weeks ago, Manchester United had a resounding 2-1 home win against Chelsea in the mid-week. The market gave them a huge bump in their ensuing home match with Bournemouth. The Red Devils lost that match 3-0 at home, then lost to Bayern Munich in the Champions League a few days after that.
Manchester United's only consistent skill this season has been inconsistency. As a result, it's best to play against them when everyone starts to believe again and this match could present real issues for their poor transition defense.
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Nottingham Forest
It's hard to say whether Nottingham Forest's 3-1 away win at Newcastle said more about the Trees under new manager Nuno Espirito Santo, or if it said more about the porous transition Newcastle defense right now given their overall lack of energy. Either way, the final performance from Forest was quite impressive. Chris Wood entered that match with 2.6 xG on the season. He posted 2.3 on the day, including three goals.
The final match report was 3.5 expected goals for the Trees in the match on just 15 shots. That means the average xG per shot was 0.23, which is the highest any team has produced this year with more than 10 shots. On paper, you can see why the Trees would be dangerous on the break thanks to Morgan Gibbs-White's improved game and Anthony Elanga's ability to run into space.
Defensively, the Trees were encouraging as well. They held Newcastle without a shot until a soft 23rd minute penalty, and it wasn't until the final 20 minutes when leading by two goals that the Magpies stockpiled most of their chances. Nottingham Forest already showed the blueprint toward exposing a bad transition defense last week, and now they'll get the chance to do it again facing a much worse defense.
They've played two matches now under Espirito Santo. The first is clouded by a first half red card, but even in that match the Trees looked very lively in transition. Perhaps it's true the rumors that the players had grown tired of Steve Cooper and now the attack has some fresh ideas on the break. The defense is still very efficient at preventing box entries from final third touches and now they have a viable counter again.
Man United
Ten Hag benched Antony and brought Marcus Rashford back into the starting lineup, an immediate upgrade for the Manchester United attack. There are questions about how good Rasmus Hojlund actually is, but there's major positive regression coming for the Red Devils in the attacking sense right now.
They had scored just 18 goals heading into halftime of their 19th match against Villa. The offensive explosion in the second half had more to do with the favorable matchup against a high Villa line with no ball pressure in midfield, but also an attack with Bruno Fernandes, Christian Eriksen, Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho is more than capable of scoring goals.
United have been a wide open pressing side this year. They've forced the second-most high turnovers and also conceded the third-most non-penalty xGA in the Premier League. They also rank top five in big scoring chances conceded.
The Red Devils matches haven't been particularly high event due to bad finishing in attack and excellent shot-stopping from Andre Onana, but the underlying data suggests the total is too low right now. United are not effective at keeping control in defensive transition against teams who want to play on the break. Forest will expose that.
Nottingham Forest vs Man United
Prediction
The market opened Manchester United as a slight road favorite in this match, which is about where I'd have lined it. Given the matchup advantages for Forest on the break here against a poor transition defense, and the Red Devils finally starting their best attacking unit, the total has been bet down too low now at a flat 2.75.
The newly energized Trees attack will produce on the break, while United will force high turnovers and put real pressure on Nottingham's inconsistent defense. Goals are coming, and the Trees are undervalued here.
