Nottingham Forest vs Southampton Odds
Nottingham Forest Odds | +114 |
Southampton Odds | +240 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+100/ -130) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-120/ -110) |
| Odds via Caesars. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
A true relegation six pointer finishes off Monday's Premier League action as Nottingham Forest hosts Southampton at the City ground.
Nottingham Forest had three points in their pocket until the final eight minutes against Brentford — when they conceded two goals — and now find themselves needing points to get out of the drop zone. Steve Cooper's team got a crucial away win the last time they faced Southampton. Doing the double over the Saints would give them a huge boost in their quest for survival.
Southampton is at the bottom of the Premier League table, but aren't totally out of it yet. A win would bring them within three points of Leeds and Nottingham Forest and give them a real shot at pulling off a great escape. However, if they lose this match, they're most likely heading to the Championship.
Nottingham Forest
Matches against teams that a play similar style to Nottingham Forest are tricky for Steve Cooper's side. Typically, he has them playing out of a 3-5-2 with the focus on being dangerous in direct transitional opportunities. They aren't the type of side that does well with a majority of possession. In fact, they average the least amount of possession in the Premier League.
Their offense is almost entirely built on creating big chances in direct transitional opportunities. Even though they're near the bottom in xG per 90 minutes, they have created the 13th-most big scoring chances in the Premier League. If that's their only plan of attack, they're going to have to hope Southampton's underperforming defense doesn't have positive regression.
Despite adding Keylor Navas in net, Nottingham's defense been incredibly poor this season — they've allowed 1.46 npxG per 90 minutes. Even when playing a 5-3-2 out of possession, Forest are allowing the second-most final third entries and second-most box entries in the Premier League.
Southampton
Desperation time has set in for Southampton in the relegation fight. They are now on their third manager of the season and will continue to set up in a 4-4-2 and play very direct under Rubén Sellés.
Southampton has run ridiculously cold defensively this season, and a lot of it comes down to bad goalkeeping. Gavin Bazunu has been one of the worst goalkeepers in Premier League history with a -16.6 post shot xG +/-. They opted to take him out of net in favor of Alex McCarthy, who has been a stable — albeit average — goalkeeper by Premier League standards.
Selles went back to Southampton's patented 4-4-2 that they played for years under Ralph Hasenhüttl. Although the underlying metrics overall have been bad under his tenure, a lot of that is due to getting pummeled by Manchester City, Arsenal and Newcastle. They had a -7.5 xGD in those three matches; in the other eight games under Sellés, Southampton only had a -3.4 xGD.
The problems that have existed for Southampton are because of their attack. They don't have a good striking duo that can finish at a high rate. Southampton are only averaging 0.88 npxG per 90 minutes and have created just 16 big scoring chances on the season.
Nottingham Forest vs Southampton Pick
With everything both of these teams have gone through this season, Southampton actually has a better xGD per 90 minutes at -0.57, while Nottingham Forest is a Premier League-worst -0.67.
Neither team is comfortable building out from the back and prefer a direct transitional type of match. With that in mind, I think it's a little crazy Nottingham Forest are an odds-on favorite even if they're played better at home.
I only have Nottingham Forest projected at +159, so I like the value on Southampton +0.5 at -135 (Caesars).
