Nottingham Forest vs Wolves Odds
| Wolverhampton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -120 | 2.5 -111o / -111u | +260 |
| Nottingham Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +109 | 2.5 -111o / -111u | +105 |
Nuno Espirito Santo will manage against his first Premier League club when his Nottingham Forest welcomes Wolverhampton Wanderers to the City Ground on Saturday.
The 50-year-old Portuguese coach remains the longest-ever tenured manager during Wolves’ Premier League era, a sign in part of the instability that has followed since his departure. He’s now beginning his first full season at the helm of Forest, who have a home draw against Bournemouth and a win at Southampton in their first two league games.
Gary O’Neil may eventually get a chance at surpassing Espirito Santo's longevity if he can replicate last season's performances. His Wolves have performed considerably better than the results suggest so far, with the defeats coming to a pair of London giants, 2-0 at Arsenal and 6-2 at home to Chelsea.
This is already Espirito Santo’s second time facing Wolves in a matter of months after a 2-2 league draw also at the City ground last April. But he has yet to venture to the Molineaux, with Steve Cooper having been in charge of Forest for a 1-1 affair that temporarily prolonged his tenure last December.
Nottingham Forest
The Trees’ improvement following Espirito Santo’s December takeover was subtle but tangible, with Forest earning 22 points in their final 21 league fixtures after taking 14 from their first 17 under Cooper.
And while there was still plenty of pragmatism in his approach, he was able to engineer an attack that was more balanced than Cooper’s and less reliant on the frequently unavailable Nigerian striker Taiwo Awoniyi.
Chris Wood in particular blossomed and scored 14 league goals to seize upon the opportunity created by Awonyi’s fitness concerns. And he’s retained the starting striker role to begin the new campaign while scoring in a season-opening home draw to Bournemouth.
But as a group the Trees will need to get sharper in front of goal than they were in last weekend’s 1-0 win at Southampton. It was a strange contest, with Forest leading 2.2 to 0.1 in expected goals and 23 to 5 in shots despite the Saints holding 64% of the possession.
New center-back Nikola Milenkovic had the best chance before Morgan Gibbs-White’s eventual winner, but couldn’t hit the target with his left foot in the 34th minute.
Wolves
Back-to-back losses to open the season shouldn’t be too concerning for O’Neil’s group considering the level of opposition. However, two big losses in the summer transfer market without obvious replacements acquired certainly leave this group weaker than at its peak last season.
Pedro Neto is now with Chelsea after he led Wolves with nine assists despite being limited to 20 league appearances. And Max Kilman is with West Ham after he was only one of two Premier League field players to play every single minute last season.
That said, last week’s game offered far more promise than a lopsided score indicated. With the game knotted at 2-all at the half, Noni Madueke explored for a second-half hat trick sparked by a fortunate deflection on the first and some atypically leaky goalkeeping from Jose Sa on the next two. Then came another exceptional finish from Joao Felix to complete the rout.
One interesting trend to consider from last season: On the nine occasions Wolves earned points from an away league fixture, a yes wager on both teams to score in all but two.
Nottingham Forest vs Wolves
Prediction
One defining trait of O’Neil’s group last season was a sense of adventure on the road. His team played 12 away league fixtures where at least three goals were scored, and five where there were five or more balls that found the net.
Meanwhile, Espirito Santo’s club was defined in part by an ability to stay in the game against any opponent at home. The Trees lost by two or more only once in 11 home matches after his takeover — a 2-0 defeat to Manchester City.
While there is turnover in both groups, the fundamental approaches remain similar to the point where I think it’s worth tying those tendencies together in a same-game parlay wager, playing yes on both teams to score and the total going over 2.5 goals at +113 and an implied 46.9% probability.
It cashed in seven of Forest’s 11 home games under Espirito Santo and 10 of Wolves’ 19 away fixtures.
