After a week off for international play (the Emma Hayes Era is off to a *flying* start, huh?), the NWSL is back in action this weekend, with teams having played 10-11 of their 26 regular season games.
Last we checked in, we were looking to buy back on Portland, play Seattle unders and fade Bay FC — pretty good! Now we have an even bigger sample to go on, and while I went through each team on a recent episode of the Bet She Wins podcast, I’m going to hyper-target a few of the most noteworthy trends here in this article and give out my best bets for the weekend, highlighting why the analysis leads to the bets.
Time to Go All in on Fading Utah
Yes, the expansion Royals are at the bottom of the table and possess the worst goal differential in the league. But they’re honestly even more overmatched than it appears. By xG they are in their own tier at the bottom of the league, and that’s even before accounting for Houston’s excellent goalie that likely means xG undersells Houston a bit.
Utah are in their own tier of bad, especially on the road, where they are 0-0-5 with a -10 goal differential and -2.24 xG/90. The books will struggle to account for just how bad the Royals are away from America First Field. Fading them via alt spreads or team total unders and opposing team totals overs will all be in play during this next month of play until the league breaks for the Olympics.
Sell on Houston, But Be Patient
Houston are actually currently tied for the eighth and final playoff spot, alongside Racing Louisville and the San Diego Wave. However, the xG table tells a MUCH different story. To use Louisville as an example, their xG/90 is +0.31 — tied for sixth in the table. Houston’s is -1.18—second-worst and a decent margin worse than Bay FC in 12th (of 14).
Part of that better success than expected goals would suggest can be tied to the excellent season Jane Cambell has had in net. The former USWNT goalie has had a few games in particular where she basically flipped the expected/actual scoreboard on its head by herself.
However, she has been outperforming to a level unsustainable for really anyone, especially a goalie who is solid but a far cry from best in the world, or even the NWSL.
As such, I am going to continue fading Houston. There will undoubtedly be games here and there where a Campbell performance burns me, but in the long run this inflated position in the table is going to be good for bettors willing to try to “catch the falling knife” as Raheem Palmer always says.
Home Sweet North Carolina?
The Courage currently sit seventh in the table — not exactly where this historically excellent franchise expected to be this season. But if they are looking for the cause, they don’t have to look too hard.
The Courage are 5-0-0 at home versus 0-0-6 on the road. I’m of two minds here. First, it’s worth noting that six of the seven Courage losses came away from home last season as well, so it’s not as if this is a new trend.
However, and I think a bit more importantly, the luck has been terrible on the road this season, with a -0.5 xGD compared to a -10 goal differential. That’s a BONKERS discrepancy, so while I’m not going to be looking to lay the hammer on any road Courage games, I may well be picking my spots to attack here if the market starts over-weighting this home/road trend.
It's Over For Portland
The Thorns have recovered well since an 0-1-3 start that saw head coach Mike Norris relieved of his duties. Under interim head coach Rob Gale, the team has won 6-of-7 and the offense has been key in that stretch.
The standard line for an NWSL game is 2.5, and in terms of xG, eight of their 11 matches have cleared that total, with seven cashing in reality. With Sophia Smith likely returning this week after missing their showdown with the Orlando Pride but picking up a goal over the international break.
By expected goals scored, the Thorns are second in the table right now, and only a handful of lower table teams have allowed more expected goals. Combine the two and no team has a higher xG per 90 than the Thorns. Even those 2.75 totals are in play for overs with Portland this season.
Louisville are Quietly Cruising Along
Racing Louisville might just be the most boring team in the NWSL—and that’s been true for years. They joined the league in 2021 and have finished 9th, 9th and 9th. Not good enough to make noise; not bad enough to raise eyebrows.
This season they currently sit in the eighth position in the table — so same deal?
I actually think this year’s iteration has some noise to make.
In one of the funniest dichotomies of all time, Racing Louisville currently have the exact same goal differential, both actual (+3) and expected (+0.31 per 90), as Gotham FC. The same Gotham side with Rose Lavellle, Lynn Williams, Crystal Dunn, Tierna Davidson, Emily Sonnett, Midge Purce and a now-retired Kelly O’Hara. Meanwhile, even NWSL fans likely struggle to name more than a couple Racing Louisville players. But add it all together and Racing Louisville are incredibly underrated.
They’re a team I’ll be betting often until the market catches up.
NWSL Best Bets
Louisville ML (+100 via FanDuel)
We don’t have lines for the entire weekend yet, but we do have lines for Friday’s games. And given the analysis above, it’s far from shocking to see that I am indeed betting Louisville, especially since they draw Houston — a team I am looking to fade. Bettors can get plus money on Louisville at home on the three-way moneyline — I make this line closer to -165, so there’s plenty of room here, even with appropriate Jane Campbell fear.
Gotham FC -2.5 (+450 via FanDuel)
This is my way of playing the Gotham ceiling. The results have been middling, but at some point things are going to come together, and getting to play a downright bad Angel City team at home is a perfect time to take a chance on the floodgates opening. I also like the three-way moneyline at -165, but I honestly like getting in on the ceiling of this Gotham team even more.
Portland vs North Carolina Over 2.5 (-150 via FanDuel)
The books sniffed this out a little bit, so this is third among the bets for this weekend, but I highlighted Portland overs above, as well as wanting to play on North Carolina’s road offense to regress positively a bit. I also really like both teams to score here, even if it’s a little juicy (around -180).
