Olympiacos vs Fiorentina Odds
| Olympiacos Odds | +220 |
| Fiorentina Odds | +125 |
| Draw | +220 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -109o / -124u |
Here is my UEFA Conference League final preview for Olympiacos vs Fiorentina.
Olympiacos and Fiorentina meet in Athens for the Europa Conference League final with a spot in the Europa League on the line.
Olympiacos pulled off a fairly big upset in the semifinals, beating Aston Villa 6-2 over two legs. It's been an interesting season for them, as they are currently on their third manager and third sporting director of the season, but they seem to have found the right man in José Luis Mendilibar, who also led Sevilla to the Europa League title last season.
Fiorentina have been relatively underwhelming in Serie A this season, but they have been really good in the Europa Conference League. They dominated Club Brugge over two legs to get back to the final for the second straight season. With a win, they would secure a spot in the Europa League, but if they lose they will be back in the Conference League next season.
Olympiacos
Olympiacos have gone through a lot of changes this season, but generally it has been a successful season and the underlying numbers have been good. In Greece they had +0.73 xGD per 90 minutes, but did fall short, finishing third in the Greek Super League.
José Luis Mendilibar took over the club on February 11th and the results have been a little mixed. He’s guided them through three rounds in the Europa Conference League playoffs, but in big domestic matches against Panathinakos and PAOK, they were pretty poor.
Under Mendilibar, Olympiacos have become much more of a direct team as opposed to previous managers, which actually sets up well for this match. Fiorentina are going to play out of the back and Olympiacos are going to press them high with a lot of intensity. That is either going to create one of two things. Either Fiorentina are going to be able to play through them and create chances through their build up or they will turn the ball over in their own end.
The problem for Olympiacos is relying to turning over Fiorentina, who are a much better build up team than Aston Villa, and relying on a few transition breaks isn't a sustainable method for winning a final especially given how short their odds are to lift the trophy.
Fiorentina
Fiorentina are one of the best ball control and in possession teams across Europe in terms of getting through the first and second phases of build up. They led Serie A this season in field tilt and possession, which is a staple of Vincenzo Italiano's system to be pragmatic and have control of the ball.
Fiorentina have great players in possession and whether they build out in a 4-2 or 3-2 type of shape. There is no doubt that they can get the ball into the opponent's final third, but that is where their problems arise. Fiorentina typically rely on a lot of long range or low quality efforts because they lack an elite striker to get on the end of a lot of their chances, which is why they only averaged 1.20 npxG per 90 minutes this season.
Out of possession, Fiorentina are a very well drilled side and counter-press at an elite level. They led Serie A this season in high turnovers and allowed the fewest box entries, progressive passes + dribbles and xThreat, which is really great sign of being able to not control matches in possession, but out of possession as well.
Most of Fiorentina's struggles also came in the first half of the season where they had a -2.8 npxGD. Once the calendar flipped to 2024 they were much better, putting up a +7.8 npxGD over their last 19 matches.
Olympiacos vs Fiorentina
Prediction
In theory, this is a good matchup for Olympiacos. They are a very direct team which does give them a chance to exploit Fiorentina's major flaw, which is defending in transition. Because Fiorentina possess the ball so much, similar to Aston Villa, they have allowed a very low number of final third and box entries, along with expected goals, but they are 19th in final third to box entry conversion rate and good transition teams have punished them.
With all of that being said, I think the number on this match has come way too far down to the point where I now have value on Fiorentina. Being a good transition team is great, but relying on a few transition attacks in a match to be successful is not as sustainable as controlling matches the way Fiorentina do.
The sheer difference in league strength between the Greek Super League and Serie A is worth about a full goal from a projection standpoint. So, even though Fiorentina's underlying numbers have been average, they market is too high on Olympiacos.
Plus, Fiorentina’s build up completion percentage and field tilt numbers are far superior to that of Aston Villa. I have Fiorentina projected at -144 to lift the cup, so I like the value on them at -130.
