Real Madrid needs a win to maintain a narrow lead in the standings, but those three points will have to come at El Sadar, one of the most difficult venues in Spain.
Osasuna will try to bring them down when they host them today at 10:15 a.m. ET in Pamplona.
Here is my Osasuna vs. Real Madrid prediction and LaLiga odds for this match.
Osasuna vs. Real Madrid Prediction, Pick, Odds
| Real Madrid Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -105 | 2.5 -160o / 125u | -180 |
| Osasuna Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -120 | 2.5 -160o / 125u | +425 |
- Osasuna vs. Real Madrid moneyline odds: Osasuna +425, Draw +300, Real Madrid -180
- Osasuna vs. Real Madrid over/under: 2.5 Goals (Over -160, Under +125)
- Osasuna vs. Real Madrid pick: Under 2.5 goals
I am backing Under 2.5 goals in the Osasuna vs. Real Madrid match.
Real Madrid Prediction
The Spanish league leader must juggle their needs to stay atop the standings with rotating the lineup to rest players for the Champions League play-off second leg against Manchester City on Wednesday.
Atlético de Madrid and Barcelona are closing in — one and two points behind, respectively — so there's no time for Real Madrid to relax, especially after losing ground recently. Two weeks ago, Espanyol dealt them a blow, and after that away loss, they only managed a 1-1 draw at home against Atlético.
Kylian Mbappé has scored nine goals in their past nine league matches, overcoming an atrocious start to the season. With 16 goals, the French star sits behind LaLiga's top scorer, Barcelona's Robert Lewandowski (19). But after an offensive surge in December and January — 22 goals in eight games –, Real Madrid fizzled out in the two February games with the sole Mbappé score against Atlético to show for it.
Manager Carlo Ancelotti has sorted out the injuries to his team's defense. Still, he will have to decide who should take a breather in midfield and upfront today without compromising a possible win.
Osasuna Prediction
Teams dread visiting Pamplona. El Sadar is one of Spain's noisiest and most intimidating stadiums, and the latest renovation in 2021 has not changed that one bit. Therefore, the huge gap in Osasuna's performance is not a coincidence.
The team boasts a 6-4-2 record at home (fifth-best in the league) compared to an appalling 1-6-4 in away games. That would be a warning sign for any visiting team. But Real Madrid is not any team.
Three months ago, Osasuna's promising season drastically changed at Santiago Bernabeu Stadium when Real Madrid pummeled them 4-0. Since then, Osasuna has played 11 league matches and won only once. Even at El Sadar, the team's form dropped with just one win, three draws, and a loss.
If they want revenge, this is it.
Osasuna vs. Real Madrid Prediction
Considering Osasuna's strength at home and Real Madrid's divided attention between tournaments with possible key players resting today, this game seems like it should be a struggle for both sides.
After all, Real Madrid's away record and goals scored (6-4-2 and 22) are very different from those at home (9-1-1 and 29), so to expect them to suffer a bit here is not a reach.
The under for this game could be a good approach with an enticing line.
Osasuna vs. Real Madrid Pick: Under 2.5 goals (+125, DraftKings)
