Porto vs Barcelona Odds
| Porto Odds | +300 |
| Barcelona Odds | -118 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -143 / +110 |
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The Catalan giants will travel to the Estádio do Dragão this Wednesday to face Sergio Conceicao's men, where both sides will look to take top spot in Group H.
Both Barcelona and Porto won their first group stage match with ease just a couple of weeks ago. Porto handed Shakhtar Donetsk a 3-1 beating away from home with Galeno being the star man, scoring two and assisting another. Barcelona currently sit atop Group H due to their 5-0 dismantling of Royal Antwerp, where Joao Félix ran the show, scoring two and assisting Robert Lewandwoski in the process.
Since the first round of Group H, both of these sides have been bitten by the injury bug, which may impact the way this match plays out. Porto will be without Sanusi as he picked up a muscle injury in their match against Shakhtar and possibly without their 40 year old captain, Pepe, who was sidelined this past weekend due to a leg injury. Barcelona will be without Frenkie De Jong, Pedri and Raphinha, who all play key roles for this side.
Let's get into my preview and pick for Porto vs Barcelona in the Champions League on Wednesday.
Porto
Porto currently sit third in the Primeira Liga, only behind Sporting and Benfica. They sit on 16 points and have played some good football so far, but have struggled to find the net compared to the two sides ahead of them. Having only scored 10 goals in their first seven matches is not up to par when their goal is to win the league. However, their defense has made up for this in a big way, having only conceded six goals on 6.8 xGA. This side is truly elite defensively.
Their captain and Portuguese international center back, Pepe, is one of they most important players in their backline. That is especially true in a match like this where Porto will likely be playing a low-block and trying to break in transition.
Iván Marcano going down to an ACL injury as well as Zaidu Sanusi picking up a muscle injury are two more massive blows to this Porto backline that has been so good this season. In their last two matches, Cardoso and Carmo came in for the injured center back pairing, so that will likely be the case again if Pepe is not fit enough to play, with Wendell covering Sanusi at left back.
Playing a backline of three players who are not first choice is not the most ideal situation against a Barcelona team who have been elite going forward so far this season.
Barcelona
Xavi and his men have started this campaign on a nine-match unbeaten run in all competitions. They currently sit second in La Liga and have scored the most goals in the league with 19. This is not due to over-performance either, with Barcelona having an xG of 18.2 so far, almost four whole goals more than the next side.
The build up play that Xavi has implemented into this Barcelona side since his arrival has been wonderful to watch. They are one of the best teams in the world when in possession and have shown that so far having won the xG battle in every match so far.
Defensively, Barcelona have been a good pressing side with the best PPDA in La Liga and the fifth-most high turnovers. The problem that Barcelona face is in transition when they lose the ball in their attacking third. This could be a problem in this match with the transition type of game plan that Porto will likely try to execute. This is not a good sign with the injury to De Jong, who will likely be replaced by Oriol Romeu, who is much less efficient in breaking up those transition opportunities.
Will a midfield of Gavi, Gündogan and Romeu be able to stop the transition offense of Porto with the likes of Taremi and Galeno? We will have to see but it is definitely an area to keep an eye on during this one.
Porto vs FC Barcelona
Pick & Prediction
All of Barcelona's metrics look really encouraging when previewing this match due to how they build and the quality of players they have. With the low-block that Porto will likely play in this match it will not surprise me if Barcelona are in control of the match for all 90 minutes. I anticipate Porto to be defending for their lives while Xavi's men play around them and with someone like Robert Lewandowski up front for Barcelona, it almost seems inevitable for him to score given so many opportunities in a match.
Porto may be without three of their starting four in the backline and while they have been good defensively so far this season, they have not come up against a team that builds as well as Barcelona do.
For this reason I not only see some value on the moneyline, but also like the spot for Barcelona here.
Pick: Barcelona ML (-112 via BetRivers)
