Portugal vs France Odds, Picks
| Portugal Odds | +230 |
| France Odds | +140 |
| Draw | +200 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +135o / -170u |
France and Portugal meet once again at the Euros, but this time it's to decide who goes to the semifinals.
France were not able to score a goal from open play, but they did enough to get by Belgium. It hasn't been the most impressive of tournaments for France, who have drastically underperformed in front of net. With that being said, they haven't allowed a non-penalty goal, so their defense may just get them through to the semifinals.
Portugal are coming off back-to-back terrible performances against Georgia and Slovenia. They failed to score in both matches and the tactical set up under Roberto Martinez has been awful. They were in the easiest qualifying group and haven't played a team even close to the level of France under Martinez, so this could be a bad night for the Portuguese.
Portugal Picks
Roberto Martinez has done it again. He’s shown true unbelievable ability to take a team of incredibly talented players and set them up in the most unbalanced disjointed system possible.
The entire tournament, Portugal have not been able to play the ball through the middle, have funneled the ball out wide and tried to beat teams via crosses. Slovenia did not let them play through the middle at all and they are not going to be able to against France. They have completed 17 crosses into the penalty area, which is most of anyone in the tournament so far, but they have attempted 120 crosses, which is 29 more than anyone else.
The biggest aspect of this game is Portugal’s ability to defend in transition. France are going to be perfectly happy allowing them to control most of the possession and outside of Joao Pahlinha, there is no ball winning in the attack or in the midfield when Portugal lose the ball. Additionally, if they are going to start a 41-year old Pepe against the pace that France has, they are leaving themselves incredibly vulnerable at the back.
France Picks
France have been completely unlucky to score a goal themselves from open play. They have now created 6.1 non-penalty expected goals and failed to score any on their own. Belgium set up very passively and sat deep, basically daring France to break them down, which is not the best scenario for the French. They did end up with 14 penalty box shots and an xThreat rating of 1.9, which is one their highest of the tournament.
What has not been talked about enough this tournament is how good Les Bleus' defense has been. Saliba and Upamecano have been shutting down opposing strikers, and Tchouaméni and Kante have been winning the ball at an incredibly high rate, so basically nobody has been able to play through the middle.
France have the highest ground duel win rate at 56%, which ignoring tactics has put them in the best positions possible to win every match. Through four matches, France have allowed 1.9 non-penalty expected goals, have allowed just four crosses to be completed into their penalty area and only two non-penalty shots with an xG rating over .20. With how inefficient Portugal have been in the final third, I do not see how they are going to create high quality chances against France’s defense.
Portugal vs France
Prediction
It goes without saying, but Cristiano Ronaldo is really costing Portugal this tournament. Roberto Martinez is basing the entire attack around him when it's not only clear that he's way past his prime, but there are much better attackers that should be seeing more of the ball and getting more of a share of the shots.
Portugal created a measly 0.85 xG in regular time against Slovenia, have shown big time vulnerabilities defending in transition and are coming off an extra 30 minutes of match time, so France have the rest advantage.
If Portugal control a majority of the possession in this match, they are going to leave themselves exposed to transition breaks against the best counterattacking team in the world with one ball stopper in the midfield and a 41-year old Pepe on the back line.
Les Bleus have the rest advantage, and Portugal's vulnerabilities could be exposed if they are not careful.
France's defense has been solid throughout the tournament, but there's still a possibility of a penalty shootout if the match remains tight. A penalty shootout win could be crucial for either team, especially after Ronaldo missed one earlier in the tournament.
I have France projected at +117, so I like the price on them at +140.
