Portugal vs Slovenia Odds, Portugal – Slovenia Picks
| Portugal Odds | -275 |
| Slovenia Odds | +1000 |
| Draw | +350 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -110 / -110 |
Let's dive into the Portugal vs Slovenia odds and make a pick and prediction in our Euro 2024 betting preview for Monday, July 1.
Portugal and Slovenia meet in Frankfurt, Germany, on Monday afternoon for a round of 16 matchup at Euro 2024.
A Seleção earned their spot in the knockout round by topping Group F with wins over the Czech Republic and Turkey.
Meanwhile, Slovenia are one of the surprises of the tournament after advancing from a group that included England, Denmark and Serbia.
The odds for this elimination game paint the picture of this being a large mismatch on paper, which I believe gives us great betting value in the props market.
Portugal Picks
After opening the competition with back-to-back wins, it turned out to be a comfortable group for Portugal to advance from. Yes, Georgia did earn the upset in match day 3, but it was a rotated Portuguese squad that rested many starters for the knockouts.
The advanced metrics also back up how well Roberto Martínez’s team has played. Portugal have averaged 1.93 expected goals and 3.67 big chances per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com.
The attacking numbers are not a surprise for a Martínez-coached side, but the defense has also been solid.
Portugal only allowed a combined 1.1 xG and one big scoring chance in the first two games. If the defense can continue complimenting an attack with plenty of stars, A Seleção can make a deep run in this tournament.
Slovenia Picks
Slovenia were the betting favorite to finish last in Group C. However, the nation stunned the world with a trio of draws to earn a place in the round of 16.
The three ties make it seem like it was straight-forward, but it was much more dramatic than that. After opening with a point against Denmark, Slovenia held a second-half lead against Serbia on match day 2.
With just a few minutes remaining, the Eagles found an equalizer to force Slovenia to get a result against England. The Slovenian squad shut out the Three Lions to advance to the knockout rounds of a major tournament for the first time in the country’s history.
A win here would continue the magical run and make this group of players legends forever.
Portugal vs Slovenia
Prediction
Portugal were a team I was high on coming into the tournament, and I could only play that side. However, I believe there is better value on a prop in this match.
With that said, my best bet is for the total corners to fly over the total of 9.5 at -121 at bet365. I also like Portugal to go over their total of 6.5 corners as a team.
If you start first with the Portuguese, all three of their matches in the tournament have had at least 10 corners. The significance of this is more than the total itself.
The fact that this would have cashed in all three means that whether Portugal are cruising or chasing a goal this bet can still win.
Meanwhile, this has also been a profitable bet for Slovenia. The three group games featuring Slovenia averaged 11 corners, with two fixtures having 10 or more corners.
These two nations did play in a friendly back in March, but Portugal were without key attackers Bruno Fernandes, Rafael Leão and Bernardo Silva.
I expect a much different performance in this round of 16 rematch.
