Portugal vs. Switzerland Odds
| Portugal Odds | -110 |
| Switzerland Odds | +333 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+110 / -138) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-106 / -125) |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here. | |
Capping off the first stage of the knockout rounds at the World Cup, Portugal and Switzerland meet on Tuesday afternoon.
The Portuguese, who topped Group H with six points, are looking to avoid elimination at this same exact point as they did in the 2018 World Cup and the Euros last summer.
Meanwhile, the Swiss have also come up short in recent tournaments in the round of 16, falling to Argentina in 2014 before losing to Sweden at the last World Cup.
Since the start of the knockout rounds, the favorites have won every game, but I feel this could be the spot to back the underdog in an upset.
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Portugal Not as Good as Results Show
Based on the results from the group stage, you could argue that Portugal have been one of the top teams in Qatar, defeating Ghana and Uruguay to win Group H before losing a meaningless match with a rotated squad to South Korea.
However, the underlying metrics have not been all that impressive for manager Fernando Santos’ side, as they own just a +0.71 xGDiff and have allowed two big scoring chances to each opponent, according to fotmob.com.
If you remove the two penalties in those matches, Santos’ team has averaged just 1.02 xG per 90 minutes offensively, and this came up against nations that aren’t as strong defensively as the Swiss.
This side still won the Euro 2016 final, and they have the stars to make another deep run in this competition.
Switzerland an Explosive and Stout Side
It wouldn’t be another major international tournament without Switzerland advancing from the group stage once again. The Swiss defeated Cameroon and Serbia to secure the second spot in Group G behind tournament favorites Brazil.
The results have not been fluky, with manager Murat Yakin’s team posting a +1.46 xGDiff. The same number would improve to +2.18 if you remove the loss to the Samba Kings.
One key performer has been striker Breel Embolo, who leads the team with a pair of goals. The Monaco forward has been a constant threat offensively, ending the group stages ranked in the top 10 in xG at 2.2.
If he is able to lead the team from the front, Embolo will be a nice compliment to the stout defense that the Swiss have.
Portugal vs. Switzerland Pick
Looking at the betting board at bet365, Portugal are listed as the favorite on the moneyline (-110) and to qualify (-225), while the total is set at 2.5 goals. I am passing on the total, but I do see value in the underdog.
My best bet is to back Switzerland on the spread with plus-money odds.
I just do not see this big of a difference between two nations that rank as the ninth and 15th-best teams in the FIFA rankings, especially for a Portugal side that I feel could struggle to score.
Considering the advanced metrics above, this Portuguese attack has to play a Swiss defense that has been as tough as could be. They would have even drawn Brazil if not for a deflected Casemiro strike.
Santos is also a manager that has been known to be very conservative once he reaches the knockout round, which could turn this into a low-scoring affair.
This game has extra time written all over it, which would cash our ticket on the Swiss.
The Pick: Switzerland +0.5 (+104)
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