Here's everything you need to know about Premier League predictions and odds for Fulham vs. Manchester City, Tottenham vs. Burnley, West Ham vs. Luton Town and Nottingham Forest vs. Chelsea. BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.
Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the weekend Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way.
If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.
If you'd like to see our projections for the Premier League matches and a number of other leagues, you can find them here.
Here are our weekend Premier League best bets.
Premier League Best Bets
| Fulham Odds | +1000 |
| Manchester City Odds | -450 |
| Draw | +600 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -275 / +220 |
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Cunningham: Once again, we are getting an inflated price on Manchester City because they have to win to maintain their lead at the top of the table, while Fulham don't really have anything to play for.
I want to go back to when these two met at the Etihad earlier in the season, because the final scoreline will not tell you how good Fulham were for most of the match. City ended up winning the match 5-1, scoring those five goals off of 2.2 expected. That included one penalty, so they really scored five goals from open play off of 1.5 expected. They also were only able to get off five shots from open play and one off of a set piece.
They just proved their ability to defend in a low block recently at home, holding Liverpool to just one expected goal and 27 touches in their penalty area.
There has been a pretty drastic difference between Fulham playing at Craven Cottage versus on the road. At home this season they have a +3.2 xGD versus a -11.3 xGD on the road. Plus, they only have a -0.7 xGD against the Big Six at home and have pulled off upsets over both Arsenal and Tottenham.
I only have Manchester City’s spread projected at -1.1, so I love the value on Fulham.
Pick: Fulham +2 (-121 via BetRivers)
| Tottenham Odds | -300 |
| Burnley Odds | +600 |
| Draw | +500 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -400 / +300 |
Dabbundo: Burnley need to win this match if it wants any chance of remaining in the Premier League next year. Spurs need to win this match to keep their top four hopes alive, or else Spurs will come up just short of a Champions League place next year. These are two of the worst set piece defenses in the entire PL, but the total remains quite inflated all the way up at four. Despite the issues of both clubs to defend set pieces, Burnley and Spurs rank 19th and 20th in xG created from attacking set pieces this season.
Neither club is well equipped to exploit the clear weakness of the opposition defense. Tottenham have had major problems with conceding goals in the last four matches against Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Newcastle, but the defense won’t be nearly as exposed by Burnley given that the Clarets rank bottom three in crosses completed into the box and have averaged just 1.04 xG per 90 in 2024 when you remove red card effects.
The goal scoring environment in the PL is as high as it's been for decades but we’ve reached the point in this match where the total is far too inflated. Just seven Spurs matches all year have cleared 4.0 expected goals. I’d bet under 4 up to -120 and project this total closer to 3.5 goals.
Picks:Under 4 (-112 via bet365)
| West Ham Odds | -125 |
| Luton Town Odds | +280 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -225 / +175 |
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Cunningham: This match should be very back and forth with both teams having absolutely nothing to lose. Luton’s relegation to the Championship is all but certain unless they win here and West Ham are not going to secure a Europa Conference League spot unless they win their final two matches and get a lot of help.
When you have two teams like this who play very similar styles of wanting to play in transition it can create a very high scoring environment. Since the calendar turned to 2024, Luton and West Ham have allowed the most expected goals in the Premier League primarily because they are both so bad at defending in low defensive blocks and they keep falling behind and having to play more aggressively out of possession, which leads to more space for teams to play in behind them.
Luton Town abandoned their low block a long time ago and have primarily trying to press opponents from build up and win the ball high. They have played two teams that are very similar to West Ham in Everton and Wolves recently and have done a relatively good job of defending against them, but West Ham have much better players in attack that can exploit them.
Additionally, West Ham are a much worse defense and they struggle in the two areas that Luton Town excels. West Ham have allowed the fourth-most crosses into their penalty area, which is basically the only way that Luton Town create chances from open play. West Ham have also been pretty horrific in terms of ball stopping when trying to defend teams in transition.
I have 3.5 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over.
Pick: Over 3.5 (+110 via BetRivers)
| Nottingham Forest Odds | +250 |
| Chelsea Odds | -106 |
| Draw | +290 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -200 / +162 |
Dabbundo: Chelsea have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the Premier League all season long and there are signs that they are currently overvalued in the market following some impressive home victories. The Blues handled both West Ham and Spurs at home with consecutive clean sheets, but the defensive metrics remain mediocre overall. Chelsea have a negative expected goal differential away from home in the league this year and Forest are one of the league’s better home teams. The Blues have essentially outscored their defensive issues in the last couple of months but that will be tougher to pull off against a Forest defense that ranks as a top six unit by xG allowed.
There are two clear deficient areas for Forest this year: goalkeeper and set pieces. These issues, plus the point deduction, are the only reasons Forest aren't comfortably in the mid-table. Despite Chelsea’s improved form, the Blues still haven’t won a league match on the road since a 3-1 win against shorthanded Crystal Palace on Feb. 12.
Chelsea have dropped points at Brentford and Sheffield United, lost badly to Arsenal and needed a comeback to draw Aston Villa. The Blues will struggle to outscore their defensive issues when playing a well above average defensive unit in Nottingham Forest.
Picks:Nottingham Forest +0.5 (-112 via bet365)
