*Editor's note: Wednesday's Premier League match between Burnley and Watford has been postponed due to a COVID-19 outbreak in the Hornets' squad. Stay tuned for more Premier League details and updates.
🚨 We can confirm that tonight’s match against Watford has been postponed due to an ongoing Covid outbreak within the opposition squad.
More information to follow. pic.twitter.com/oTA9ftrpFO
— Burnley FC 🏆 (@BurnleyOfficial) December 15, 2021
Burnley vs. Watford Odds
| Burnley Odds | +110 |
| Watford Odds | +250 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-105 / -120) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
It's a relegation six-pointer at Turf Moor, Burnley welcomes Watford in a match impacting the bottom half of the Premier League table.
Last time out, the Clarets earned their second draw in their last three outings after containing West Ham United's attack this past Sunday. Meanwhile, Watford dropped all three points for the fourth consecutive match after Brentford staged a late comeback in last Friday's game.
Historically, Burnley has the edge in this fixture, winning two consecutive contests and producing a result in five of its last six encounters with Watford. A third win in a row would see the Clarets swap spots with the Hornets in the table and escape the relegation zone.
As for Watford, a result keeps them out of the bottom three, while a win could send them anywhere from three to five points clear of the bottom.
Stingy Defense Paving Way for Burnley
Across their last three fixtures, defense has been the name of the game for manager Sean Dyche's squad.
Despite not registering a goal in any of their outings against Wolves, Newcastle United or West Ham, the Clarets have allowed only a single goal, albeit on 2.6 expected goals against combined in those fixtures.
If Burnley continues that defensive form against a potent Watford attack, there's a good chance the hosts will walk away with at least a point.
Despite sitting in the relegation zone, Burnley has quietly been a very solid home side. Through seven home fixtures, it has allowed the fifth-fewest expected goals against and has the 10th-best home expected goal differential in the league.
In fact, Burnley has won five home matches on xG, hasn't posted an outright home loss since a defeat against Arsenal in its fifth league fixture and has only allowed one or more xG once in their last four games at Turf Moor.
The underlying metrics back up Burnley's home performances as well. Dyche's side has posted above-average shot-creating actions against in all seven home fixtures and above-average goal-creating actions against in five of seven, per fbref.com.
That said, Burnley's home offensive metrics are only slightly better than its table position. It has posted the fifth-worst xG output at Turf Moor and has netted two or more goals in only two matches on home soil.
Watford Offense Enjoying Recent Tear
Whereas Burnley has put on a defensive showcase as of late, Watford have been on an offensive tear. In their last five EPL matches, the Hornets have posted nine total goals on 7.2 xG and have only been held scoreless twice in their last eight contests.
That said, there are some areas of concern for the Watford offense. In five of their first eight road fixtures, the Hornets have posted two or fewer shots on target in five and has registered 10 or more total shots in four of them.
On the defensive end, Watford has continuously let itself down, keeping only one of its last five opponents under two goals. Additionally, three of their last four opponents have generated two or more xG on a defense that sits dead last in non-penalty expected goals against.
The (somewhat) good news for manager Claudio Ranieri and company? They've been slightly unlucky away from Vicarage Road and could be due for some positive regression. Despite sitting tied for 12th in road points, Watford possesses the 10th-best road xGDiff in the English top flight, per fbref.com.
Plus, since Ranieri has taken over, Watford has won two of four road matches on xG despite claiming only three of a possible 12 points in those contests.
Betting Analysis & Pick
From where I'm sitting, the best unit in this match is the Burnley defense. That leads me to the Clarets, but I need more than +110 on the moneyline for a side that has only won once at Turf Moor.
Additionally, Burnley's Draw No Bet price (-175) is simply too high when I believe there's little separating these sides.
That said, I believe Burnley does have an edge when it comes to set pieces. Entering this game, the Clarets have produced the third-most goal-creating actions off dead-ball situations in the league. On the flip side, Watford is tied for 17th in goal-creating actions allowed off dead-ball situations, per fbref.com.
Additionally, the one area in which we know Watford struggle on the road is getting on the board first. In their last 46 Premier League road fixtures, the Hornets opened the scoring only 18 times, including twice this season.
Given Burnley's set-piece advantage and Watford's penchant for playing open at the back, ignore the sides and totals, and head to the prop market instead.
Pick: Burnley to Score First Goal (-145)
