With races at both ends of the Premier League table, my attention is set on a pair of fixtures with teams in the battle to avoid relegation, which includes Burnley hosting Aston Villa and Watford’s trip to Crystal Palace.
The Clarets have won three consecutive matches to push up to 16th place, sitting two points above the relegation zone, and play opponents that they will face twice in their four remaining league games.
Meanwhile, a loss for the Hornets at Selhurst Park would confirm their fate of dropping out of the English top flight next season.
Even if these games don’t include the biggest clubs of the EPL, these matches will be very important for the futures of these teams. So, let’s dive into these fixtures to find the best betting value for my best bets.
Burnley vs. Aston Villa Odds
| Burnley Odds | +195 |
| Aston Villa Odds | +145 |
| Draw | +220 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+100 / -140) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Burnley has hit its best form of the season coming into the weekend, so I’m going to continue to ride that against an Aston Villa side that has nothing to play for the rest of the Premier League season.
In the four games since the firing of longtime manager Sean Dyche, the Clarets are unbeaten with three wins and a draw, posting a +1.2 xGDiff over this run, according to fbref.com.
One key to the turnaround has been the better attacking numbers, where the club has averaged 1.5 xG per 90 minutes in the four fixtures. This is a massive improvement from the 0.91 per game average for the rest of the season.
As for the visitors, you have to wonder what the motivation will be for manager Steven Gerrard’s team. The Villans are safely in the mid-table, with only one win in their last six in the league, which included a run of losing four in a row.
This could be a great opportunity to back a home underdog on the moneyline for a great price of +195 odds. However, I’m going to play the safer Draw No Bet wager at +105 to cover myself in case of a low-scoring draw.
Pund's Pick: Burnley — Draw No Bet (+105)
Crystal Palace vs. Watford Odds
| Crystal Palace Odds | -145 |
| Watford Odds | +425 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-115 / -120) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
In our next match, I’m expecting a very low-event game that should lead to it falling under the total of 2.5 goals.
Only one out of the last five home games for Crystal Palace has finished with more than 2.5 goals, while this same bet has cashed in eight out of the last 12 games in the EPL overall.
One metric that I like to look at for betting totals is the combined expected goals in recent games. In the Eagles' last five matches, the average combined xG per 90 minutes was just 2.04 goals.
Meanwhile, Watford's main issue since manager Roy Hodgson was hired has been creating consistent chances away from home. The Hornets have only averaged 0.8 xG per match in the eight road games under Hodgson, while failing to score in five of those fixtures.
His team now has to go up against a Palace defense that ranks in the top 5 in the EPL in non-penalty xG allowed per 90 minutes (1.02), opponents’ shots per game (11.82) and big scoring chances surrendered (26) overall.
This would likely be a game I wouldn’t suggest watching on the slate, but that doesn’t mean we can’t still cash a winning ticket in a boring affair.
Pund's Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-120)
