As we come to the closing stages of the Premier League season, there is a pair of matches very important for sides looking to avoid relegation, with Watford hosting Burnley and Norwich City visiting Aston Villa on the Saturday slate.
The Hornets have this home game circled as a must-win situation as they're nine points behind the Clarets in 17th place, which would be the final team to stay in the English top flight.
Meanwhile, the Canaries are at the foot of the table and running out of time. However, they might like their chances facing a Villa side that has lost four out of its last five games.
With everything that's on the line in these fixtures, we should have a couple of feisty, entertaining affairs. So, let’s take a look at where the betting value lies in these vital matches.
Watford vs. Burnley Odds
| Watford Odds | +165 |
| Burnley Odds | +175 |
| Draw | +220 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+100 / -140) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network | fuboTV |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
In this relegation six-pointer, neither team is going to be satisfied with a draw, which means we’ll have teams that will be pushing for goals until the last second of this affair.
Once you add in the fact we have two defenses that rank toward the bottom of the EPL in multiple metrics, I think there's a great opportunity for both clubs to find the back of the net.
Burnley has allowed an average of 1.7 expected goals per 90 minutes over the last nine games, according to fbref.com, which is just slightly better than Watford’s 1.611 average during the same span.
Meanwhile, the Hornets have only secured one clean sheet in this stretch of games compared to just two shutouts for the Clarets.
What also helps is how Burnley has improved recently on offense, averaging 1.48 xG per match and scoring seven goals in the last five league fixtures. The combined xG average over the five games was also 3.26 in the process.
A tie does neither side any good in their bids for survival, which should keep them pushing for a goal until the final whistle.
Pund's Pick: Number of Teams to Score Regular Time — Both (-130)
Aston Villa vs. Norwich City Odds
| Aston Villa Odds | -250 |
| Norwich City Odds | +675 |
| Draw | +375 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-160 / +115) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | CNBC | Peacock Premium | fuboTV |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
In our next match, I’m also expecting more goals, which has been a profitable bet in games with these two clubs this season.
Starting with Villa, the same bet has cashed in 67 percent of league fixtures at home, with only Watford and Tottenham having higher percentages at 69 percent each. The total has also flown over 2.5 goals in five of the last seven for the Villans.
Meanwhile, Norwich’s fixtures are no strangers to goals either, finishing with at least three goals in seven of the last 10 in league play. The advanced metrics have also pointed to goals.
In this same stretch of 10 matches, the combined xG average has been 3.59 per 90 minutes, while the Canaries have allowed 2.62 xG on average in the run.
The full season trends also point toward goals as well, with Norwich ranking third and Villa fourth in the EPL in the highest percentage of overall games that have finished with more than 2.5 goals.
With the Canaries needing a result, they will have to keep going forward to find a goal, which will leave them vulnerable at the back.
Once you add in the attacking talent Villa has into that scenario, I think we have a great shot at seeing goals at Villa Park and will back the total clearing 2.5 goals at -148 odds via FanDuel as my top selection.
Pund's Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-148)
