Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Preview: Our Top Plays, Including Bet From Burnley vs. West Ham (Dec. 10-12)

You better not blink or slip up in the Premier League title race or you could get left behind.

Chelsea was upset on the road at West Ham United last Saturday, which allowed Liverpool and Manchester City to jump them in the table.

While there aren't many intriguing encounters this weekend, Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City are all big home favorites, which means if one of them stumbles, we could have another shake-up in the English top flight.

We're approaching the festive fixture portion of the Premier League calendar. So, this would be an important time to say that my projections below don't take into account suspensions or injuries. That said, it might be a good idea to wait until lineups come out or injury news gets announced.

If you're new to our soccer coverage, I will be providing my projections for every Premier League match, along with every other game from Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga and Ligue 1, plus Champions League and Europa League when they’re in action.

If you'd like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here.

You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Premier League Projections

Best Bets

Brentford vs. Watford

Ivan Toney being out for Brentford is giving me a lot of pause with this match, because I do have some projected value on the Bees.

This season, Toney hasn’t been that efficient in league play, only creating 4.03 expected goals in 14 appearances and has a subpar 0.14 NPXG per 90-minute scoring rate. However, Toney does provide a lot in terms of winning the ball in the air and assisting his teammates, as he has 16 passes leading to a shot this season.

Regardless of his absence, I still like Brentford in this match.

(Graphic via fbref.com)

I know Watford has played the most difficult schedule in the Premier League over the past few months, but they're the worst EPL team against pressure, while Brentford is seventh in PPDA and was able to press Leeds United pretty successfully in their last match.

Defensively, Brentford is hardly allowing opponents to get off any shots, allowing only 12.1 per 90 minutes, which is the fifth-best mark in the league.

Without Toney, the scoring load is going to be put on Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa, but they have better scoring rates than Toney anyway. So, I'm not worried about them being able to breakdown a Watford defense that is dead last in NPxG allowed and 19th in box entries. 

Additionally, Watford is dealing with some injuries themselves, as their best attacking player Ismaila Sarr is out, along with two defenders and starting goalkeeper Ben Foster. 

I have Brentford projected at -150, so I love them at +110 odds via DraftKings and will make them my top selection.

Pick: Brentford ML (+110)

Man City vs. Wolves

I was curious to see how Wolves would look when they finally had to play one of the top three teams in the league. And boy, were they very defensive.

I mentioned this last week, but Wolverhampton is a very interesting team in the fact that they don't press high. Yet, once a team crosses the halfway line, Wolves press very cohesively, which makes it very difficult for opponents to play through them.

That's a big reason why they have the second-best pressure success rate in the league. Against Liverpool, only 10% of their total pressure came in the final third and they're likely going to sit very deep again against Manchester City.

Even though Wolves only conceded one goal against Liverpool in stoppage time, they allowed the Reds to have 42 touches in their penalty area, which in turn led to them allowing three big scoring chances and 2.5 xG in the match.

(graphic via infogol.net)

Manchester City is being more direct and quicker in their attacking play this season, but they're not at the level tempo-wise to where Liverpool is. So, with Wolves sitting very deep and allowing City to have a majority of the ball could turn this into a sluggish match.

Wolves’ offensive numbers outside of creating big scoring chances is really bad this season: 15th in npxG, 16th in shots per 90 minutes and 16th in box entries. Defensively, the Cityzens are No. 1 in every single defensive advanced metric and conceding just 0.62 NPxG per contest. 

I only have 2.57 goals projected for this game, so I like the total under three goals on the alternative line at -105 odds and will make it my top selection.

Pick: Total Under 3 Goals (-105)

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Arsenal vs. Southampton

Arsenal, who looks terrible right now, completely lost control of the match against Everton this past Monday and deserved to lose.

The Gunners' defense is very reliant on Gabriel and Ben White to be playing at a high level because the rest of the midfield has been poor defensively this season. Manager Mikel Arteta’s style of play is very reliant on Arsenal having a large share of the possession because when they don’t have the ball, they don’t press. The Gunners aren't a good team stylistically like Burnley, who can defend in a low-block structure at a high level without pressing. 

Southampton has been much better than all of us expected this season. Defensively, the Saints are allowing 1.35 NPxG per match, but they're eighth in shots allowed per 90 minutes and sixth in box entries conceded. Bottom line, they're  just allowing too many big scoring chances.

The Saints are going to press Arsenal a ton, but the Gunners have been pretty good against pressure. However, if you go back to matches against teams like Brighton & Hove Albion, Liverpool and Watford — essentially teams that press at a high rate — Arsenal struggled to create chances against them.

Offensively, the Saints have been really good, ranking inside the top seven in NPxG, box entries and big scoring chances. So, going up against an Arsenal defense that has allowed 9.3 xG in their last nine matches means they should be able to create some chances.

I only have Arsenal projected at +105, so I like Southampton getting +1 at -130 odds or better in this matchup.

Pick: Southampton +1 (-130)

Burnley vs. West Ham

Burnley’s 4-4-2 formation hasn’t been as good as years past, as they're allowing 1.52 xG per 90 minutes when playing out of that tactical approach this season.

So, it’s not surprising that they’re last in the Premier League in shots allowed per 90 minutes and box entries conceded. That's a big time problem going up against a Hammers offense that's top five in both of those metrics.

The biggest thing with a 4-4-2 setup and philosophy behind it is to clog up the middle of the pitch, stay organized in your back two lines of four and force your opponent to beat you with crosses into the penalty area. So, for a club like Burnley, who has defenders like James Tarkowski and Ben Mee that are really good at winning the ball in the air, it makes sense. 

However, Burnley has been really bad at defending crosses, as they’ve allowed the sixth most into their own penalty area. Now, they’re facing a West Ham team that has completed the second-most crosses into the box.

West Ham is thin defensively coming into this match with Angelo Ogbonna already out for the season. Kurt Zouma is sidelined with a hamstring injury, plus Ben Johnson will miss the game and Aaron Cresswell is questionable.

I have 2.83 goals projected for this match, so I love the total clearing 2.5 goals at -110 odds, especially with West Ham's defensive troubles.

Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-110)