Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Preview: Our Favorite Bets, Including Crystal Palace (Dec. 14-16)

We have a full slate of midweek matches in the Premier League, running from Tuesday to Thursday before the weekend lineup of games.

The only match currently not taking place is the Brentford vs. Manchester United showdown that was slated for Tuesday's card. The Red Devils have been dealing with a COVID-19 outbreak at the club, forcing the postponement of the fixture.

This past weekend, we almost saw a shake-up in the title race before a Jorginho penalty gave Chelsea all three points against Leeds United at Stamford Bridge to highlight action in the English top flight.

This week, there aren't many big-time matches outside of a clash for a top-four spot between Arsenal and West Ham United. Other than that Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool will all look to avoid an upset against bottom half of the table sides to keep pace in the title race.

We're approaching the festive fixture portion of the Premier League calendar. So, this would be an important time to say that my projections below don't take into account suspensions or injuries. That said, it might be a good idea to wait until lineups come out or injury news gets announced.

If you're new to our soccer coverage, I will be providing my projections for every Premier League match, along with every other game from Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga and Ligue 1, plus Champions League and Europa League when they’re in action.

If you'd like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here.

You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Premier League Projections

Best Bets

Man City vs. Leeds

This is a play on the Manchester CIty defense, which has probably been the best in the world so far this season. The Cityzens are allowing only 0.59 NPxG per match, 6.56 shots per 90 minutes 7.31 box entries per 90 minutes and only seven big scoring chances in 16 games, per fbref.com.

All of those are not just the best marks in England, but No. 1 among Europe’s top-five leagues. So, I am not sure if Leeds, who will be without Kelvin Phillips, Patrick Bamford and Rodrigo, are going to create anything of substance against the Cityzens' defense. 

In fact, the last time that Manchester City allowed a Premier League opponent to create more than one expected goal was Oct. 30 against Crystal Palace and they were down a man for the final 45 minutes in that match. That’s how dominant they’ve been.

I have the Both Teams To Score — No line projected at -191, so based on that, there's a little value on the current line of -150 odds.

Pick: Both Teams to Score — No (-150)

Crystal Palace vs. Southampton

The home/oad splits for Crystal Palace are quite drastic this season. The Eagles have a +6.1 xGDiff at Selhurst Park, which is the fourth-best mark in the league, versus a -3.8 xGDiff on the road.

Overall for the season, Crystal Palace’s offensive numbers are below average, but they’ve been playing much better lately. The Eagles are averaging 1.46 xG over their past eight matches, creating 12 big scoring chances in those eight games compared to creating just six over their first eight matches.

That’s going to be huge against a Southampton defense that has allowed the third-most big scoring chances in the league and just surrendered three big scoring chances to Arsenal this past Saturday.

Crystal Palace has been incredible defensively under manager Patrick Vieira this season, allowing only 0.99 NPxG per match and have conceded only 10 big scoring chances, which is the second-best mark in the Premier League. 

Southampton is in the bottom five in the league against pressure and Crystal Palace presses at the second-highest rate, so they should be able to create some chances on the counterattack.

Given Crystal Palace’s play at Selhurst Park, I love them to grab all three points at +130 or better and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Crystal Palace ML (+130)

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Brighton vs. Wolves

What happened to Wolves offense that we fell in love with at the beginning of the season? Manager Bruno Lage’s men have only created more than one expected goal once in their last six matches.

Additionally, Wolverhampton is going to be without star striker Raul Jimenez after he picked up one of the dumbest red cards via two cautions you’ll ever see against Manchester City this past Saturday. In fact, Wolves haven't created a big scoring chance in their last six matches and average 10.37 shots per 90 minutes, which is now last in the league.

So, going up against a very well organized defensive side like Brighton & Hove Albion, which is only allowing 1.14 NPxG per match and have allowed the third-fewest big scoring chances in the Premier League. That said, I'm not sure how Wolves are going create any high quality chances.

Offensively, Brighton has been pretty bad overall, but have been much better in their last three matches, creating a combined 4.6 xG in the process. However, two of their best attacking midfielders — Adam Lallana and Leandro Troussard — will miss this match. Even though Wolves has been really bad offensively, they’re still a good defensive team with a good structure, allowing only 1.19 NPxG per match this season, per fbref.com.

These are also teams that are fantastic at pressuring in their own half of the pitch and Brighton typically plays very slow in their build up play, so this match has 0-0 draw or Brighton earning a 1-0 win written all over it.

I have the BTTS — No line projected at -161, so I like the current odds of -130 and would play it up to -140 odds.

Pick: Both Teams to Score — No (-130)