While there are no marquee matches taking place across the Premier League this week, a lot of fixtures have relegation implications.
Two such matches — Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Norwich City and Burnley vs. Manchester City at Turf Moor — fit that bill. With that in mind, how should bettors approach games involving two potentially unmotivated sides?
Even though it can prove tricky, I still see value to be had on the board. So, without further delay, here are my best bets for each contest.
Brighton vs. Norwich City Odds
| Brighton Odds | -200 |
| Norwich City Odds | +625 |
| Draw | +325 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-105 / -135) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated as of Saturday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Simply put, Brighton has played atrocious soccer of late.
The Seagulls have dropped all three points in four consecutive home games and six in a row overall. In 2022, manager Graham Potter's squad owns only two outright victories, both of which came against bottom-five teams.
Surely, this is the get-right spot, no? Unfortunately, I have a hard time seeing how Brighton gets margin in this game and -200 odds are simply too big a price for a team that's notched 4.5 expected goals in its last six games. As a result, I'm looking to the total instead.
While it's always dangerous recommending an under for an unmotivated defense, I think you'll see very little offense in this clash. In addition to Brighton's recent offensive problems, Norwich owns the second-worst xG output away from home this season in the English top flight.
Plus, there's no reason for the Seagulls to run up the score. Potter's squad sits in 13th place, but is safe from relegation. Furthermore, the first meeting between these sides saw only 1.9 combined xG overall.
Expect the Seagulls to take an early lead and sit on it against the non-threatening Canaries attack.
Hennion's Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-135)
Burnley vs. Man City Odds
| Burnley Odds | +1200 |
| Man City Odds | -450 |
| Draw | +525 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+130 / -185) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated as of Saturday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
This fixture is tricky to handicap for a few reasons and could prove closer than most expect.
Manchester City is due for some heavy positive offensive regression away from home. Through 15 road fixtures, manager Pep Guardiola's side has scored 28 goals on about 34 xG, including six goals on 10 xG in its last four away from home, per fbref.com.
On the flip side, Burnley's defense has held up very well at Turf Moor. The Clarets have only allowed 16.9 xG on home soil, which is good for 10th best in the league.
However, that defense has crumbled of late. Burnley has conceded at least 1.5 xG in four of its last five home matches, including three of its last four against top-six sides.
However, I can't help but think City could get trapped in a Champions League lookahead spot. A Tuesday home fixture against Atlético Madrid will surely be on the minds of the players in Guardiola's dressing room, so I don't think the Cityzens go for the jugular in this meeting.
Rather, I think much like the Brighton vs. Norwich affair, City takes a lead and sits on it. For those reasons, I'm backing a Single Game Parlay pairing Manchester City on the moneyline with the total staying under 3.5 goals.
Hennion's Pick: Single Game Parlay — Manchester City ML & Total Under 3.5 Goals (-110)
