After a couple of weeks off for the international break, the Premier League returns to action this weekend with a full slate of games. My focus is set on the London derby between Chelsea and Brentford, as well as the mid-table clash between Wolverhampton and Aston Villa.
The Blues, winners of five consecutive matches, enter the game in sole possession of third place in the league table. As for the the Bees, they've fallen to 15th place in the standings after a strong start to the campaign.
Wolves and Villa are back to back in the English top flight in eighth and ninth place, respectively. However, the hosts do own a 10-point lead over the Villans heading into this contest.
With most clubs having less than 10 games left on their league slates, every game from now until the end of the season has even more importance. Needless to say, that should make for a great slate of EPL games.
Let’s dive into these games to look for the best betting value on the board.
Chelsea vs. Brentford Odds
| Chelsea Odds | -300 |
| Brentford Odds | +875 |
| Draw | +400 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-125 / -110) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network | fuboTV |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Chelsea has been on dominant form over the last couple of months, so I think this is another spot to back the Blues on home soil at Stamford Bridge.
Over the last six league games, manager Thomas Tuchel’s side has posted a +3.9 expected goals difference, according to fbref.com, via five wins and a draw. This same stretch also saw the total fall under 3.5 goals in four fixtures.
The big improvements of late have included the return of a dominant defense, which has held opponents to an average of just 0.61 xGA per game in the last seven outings.
As for Brentford, the Bees have really struggled away from home, picking up only 29 percent of the available points in road EPL games on three wins and four draws to go along with eight losses.
The advanced metrics give an even worse look, where the club owns a -7.6 xG difference in games away from the Brentford Community Stadium. Meanwhile, only two out of Brentford’s last 10 league games have finished with more than 3.5 goals, so the club is used to playing low-scoring matches.
You can also look at Chelsea to Win to Nil (-110) as another option for this game since Brentford failed to score against the host side in the reverse fixture and in three of four games against similar opposition in Manchester City and Liverpool. However, a Single Game Parlay gives us a little more protection at the same price.
This bet cashed in the first game between the sides, so I think there’s a great chance for it to happen again.
Pund's Pick: Single Game Parlay — Chelsea ML & Total Under 3.5 Goals (-110)
Wolves vs. Aston Villa Odds
| Wolves Odds | +190 |
| Aston Villa Odds | +160 |
| Draw | +200 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+130 / -185) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | CNBC | Peacock Premium | fuboTV |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
In this second game, I also don’t see many goals between Wolves and Aston Villa since it pairs clubs that don't feature high-flying, attacking offenses.
We all know about the offensive struggles that manager Bruno Lage’s team has had thus far, as it ranks in the bottom five of the league in xG per match (0.96), goals scored (29) and shots per game (10.70) this season.
This is the same side that has leaned on the outstanding performances from goalkeeper José Sá, who only trails David de Gea in post-shots xG minus goals allowed at +10.1 in league play.
As for the visitors, their offensive numbers have been a little better than their counterparts since Steven Gerrard became the manager. However, they still are not great. In his 18 games in charge, the Villans have averaged right around one xG per match, which drops to 0.92 xG per 90 minutes in contests away from Villa Park under his leadership.
This same bet has also been very profitable in games with both clubs, cashing in 10 of 15 (67%) home games for Wolves and six of their last nine contests overall. Both teams have failed to score in 60 percent of Villa’s away matches and in seven of the last nine in EPL fixtures.
We’ve seen these teams struggle over different stretches to find the back of the net, so I think this wager at DraftKings offers us the best chance and betting value for the game.
Pund's Pick: Both Teams to Score — No (-110)
