While a lot of the attention might be on college basketball and Selection Sunday, I’ll be locked into a great slate of Premier League action. The lineup includes a pair of vital games in the fight to avoid relegation, with Leeds United hosting Norwich City and Watford making a trip to Southampton.
The Peacocks have dropped six consecutive matches to fall to 16th place in the table, staying just two points above the drop zone. Meanwhile, the Canaries have also failed to pick up a win in their last six EPL outings and are at the foot of the English top flight.
For our other match, the Saints look to continue their strong home form against a Hornets squad that's in deep trouble to avoid the drop.
These are two very important fixtures in England, and we’re here to provide you with the best betting value between them.
Sunday's Premier League Best Bets
Leeds vs. Norwich City Odds
| Leeds Odds | -175 |
| Norwich City Odds | +300 |
| Draw | +475 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-165 / +120) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated as of Sunday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Leeds has struggled with injuries all season, but with one key piece returning for this game, I think this is the right time to back the home side.
The Peacocks are excited to have the return of Patrick Bamford, last season’s leading scorer and key influential player, to the starting lineup. The striker has a combined 33 goals over the last two campaigns to go along with nine assists.
Even in his seven appearances and five starts this season, he has registered a pair of assists and goals on an average of 0.61 expected goals per match, according to fbref.com.
This is also a fade of a really bad Norwich side that comes in with a -10.8 xG difference over its last six league tilts, while also being outscored by 12 goals.
On the season, the Canaries have been even worse away from home, posting a -17.9 xGDiff on 0.754 xG per match.
The issue is trying to get the price down low enough for the best value, which is why I’m going with a Single Game Parlay featuring Leeds to win paired with the match to finish with more than 1.5 goals.
Leeds’ league fixtures have finished with multiple goals in 22 of 28 (79%) this season, while 23 of 28 (82%) Norwich matches have gone over this total.
The Peacocks have had a difficult campaign, but the return of a key player against terrible opposition makes this a great spot to pick up a vital victory.
Pund's Pick: Single Game Parlay — Leeds ML & Total Over 1.5 Goals (-125)
Southampton vs. Watford Odds
| Southampton Odds | -175 |
| Watford Odds | +475 |
| Draw | +310 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-130 / -110) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated as of Sunday morning via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Similar to the pick above, my best bet here is primarily wanting to oppose Watford, which has struggled on the road under manager Roy Hodgson.
The Hornets have played five road games under the new boss, posting a -2.8 xGDiff and averaging just .74 xG in those contests. Meanwhile, Watford has also only scored one goal in that stretch, which has been a major issue under Hodgson.
In his eight games in charge, the Hornets have failed to score in five of the fixtures and have only registered 6.8 xG overall.
This comes up against a Southampton team that has held opponents to 0.93 xG at home, posting shutouts against similar competition in Leeds, Aston Villa, Everton and Norwich City.
If you remove the home games against Tottenham and Manchester City, the average drops to 0.75 xG per match. Saints also own a +5.5 xGDiff and have lost just twice at Saint Mary’s Stadium this season.
Watford has the look of a team that is destined for a quick stay in the Premier League, and with this big of a plus price, this play jumps off the page as great value to oppose the struggling club.
Pund's Pick: Southampton — Win to Nil (+155)
