With a full slate of Premier League matches on deck, there are big games all over England this weekend that will play a huge role in relegation and European qualification for next season.
That said, my focus is set on showdowns featuring Leicester City hosting Aston Villa and Newcastle United making a trip to Norwich City on Saturday's intriguing card.
Leicester has the first leg of its Europa Conference League semifinal matchup with Roma in the middle of next week, but it first must hold off a Villa squad desperate to end its four-game losing run.
Meanwhile, the Magpies have won three consecutive contests and have a chance to finish in the top half of the EPL. However, this game is much bigger for the Canaries, who desperately need points to avoid falling out of the English top flight.
Let’s dive into these games to look for the best betting value on the board.
Saturday's EPL Best Bets
Leicester City vs. Aston Villa
| Leicester Odds | +170 |
| Aston Villa Odds | +155 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-130 / -110) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | CNBC | Peacock Premium | fuboTV |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
These teams have been outperforming their advanced metrics for goals in recent matches, so I think this is the time we see regression to cash an under ticket at King Power Stadium.
If we start with the host, Leicester has struggled recently at consistently creating chances, averaging just 0.80 expected goals per 90 minutes over its last seven league games, according to fbref.com. Also, the average combined xG in those matches was 2.27 overall.
One key reason for this has been the absence of Jamie Vardy, the club’s leading scorer, who is likely to be out again. The Foxes also might be resting key players for their upcoming European semifinal.
Meanwhile, Villa has played a lot of low-event fixtures away from home from Villa Park. In 16 road games, the combined xG average in those tilts has been 2.29 overall.
Another key stat that points toward a low-scoring affair could be the lack of big scoring chances. Both clubs rank in the bottom half of the EPL in the metric, with the Foxes sitting 14th and the Villans even lower in 18th place.
Multiple aspects point toward this game not having many goals, so I think the price is right to back the total falling under the total.
Pund's Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-110)
BJ Cunningham’s EPL Projections
Norwich City vs. Newcastle
| Norwich Odds | +250 |
| Newcastle Odds | +110 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-115 / -120) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
When I look at this game, picking a side or a total is very tricky due to how unpredictable the teams can be, but there's an in-form striker showing great value to find the back of the net.
Finnish forward Teemu Pukki has really started to hit his stride lately, scoring in four of the last six games for the Canaries. Meanwhile, he also has a great history of scoring against Newcastle.
In his three meetings against the Magpies, Pukki has scored four goals, which includes a hat trick and a solo goal in the reverse fixture earlier this season.
It also helps that he takes the penalties for Norwich and only three other EPL teams have given up more spot kicks than Newcastle this campaign.
On the season, Pukki has accounted for half of his team's league goals, which if you factor in that the Both Teams to Score (Yes) wager is -130 at FanDuel, then it would imply the team as a whole has a good chance of scoring.
This also comes at a time when the Canaries have put together some of their best attacking numbers of the season. Over its last six matches, Norwich has averaged 1.22 xG per 90 minutes, which is much better than the 0.80 per game average in the 26 fixtures before this stretch.
Most good things this season for Norwich have started with Pukki, and based on his recent form and his history against Newcastle, I think there's a great chance of him finding a goal.
Pund's Pick: Teemu Pukki (Norwich City) — Anytime Goalscorer (+170)
