Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Preview & Predictions: Our 4 Best Bets, Featuring Bournemouth vs. Leicester

We are back from the international break with a full slate of Premier League action, which includes a North London Derby and a Manchester Derby.

BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.

Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be taking you through the Champions League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way. They'll also provide their individual model projections for the games.

If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.

Cunningham's Model Projections

Dabbundo's Model Projections

Bournemouth vs. Leicester

Cunningham: The price on this under being plus money is pretty crazy. Bournemouth still has yet to create more than one expected goal in a match this season, and they’ve created just two big scoring chances. But against non-big six sides, they have been good defensively because their matches against Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest, Wolves, Newcastle and Brentford are averaging just 1.92 expected goals. 

Leicester against non-big six sides have also been playing some really low event-style matches because their four matches against Brentford, Southampton, Brighton and Nottingham Forest are averaging only 2.12 xG. Bournemouth has created the fewest big scoring chances, but do you know who has the second-fewest? It’s Leicester, who have created only three on the season. In fact, in their last match against Nottingham Forest, they scored four goals off  1.2 expected. 

Leicester’s matches this season have featured 36 goals off of 20.3 expected. It’s a mixture of James Maddison finishing at a crazy rate and scoring five goals off of 1.1 expected and Danny Ward being one of the worst keepers in the Premier League with a -5.3 post-shot xG +/-. 

So, I think we see Bournemouth sit deep in their usual low block with Leicester not being able to break them down effectively. 

I have only 2.28 goals projected, so I like the value on Under 2.5 goals at +104 (BetRivers). 

Pick: Under 2.5 goals (+104)

Brighton vs. Tottenham

Dabbundo: Spurs are in a difficult road spot here sandwiched between two Champions League matches with Eintracht Frankfurt. Through eight Premier League matches in 2022, Brighton and Spurs both have played two big six sides, and the net xG difference for both is +0.44 per 90 minutes. 

Tottenham has struggled with its field tilt and ability to retain the ball recently, in part because the unit doesn’t press much and looks to create opportunities through transition. The Seagulls were playing somewhat more directly under Graham Potter this season when compared to last, but he’s gone now, and Roberto De Zerbi is going to prioritize short goal kicks and playing out from the back even more than Potter did. 

When these two sides met in North London in the spring, Brighton completely shut off Spurs’ transition opportunities. Tottenham’s rise in the second half of last season was dependent heavily on the chance creation of Dejan Kulusevski, and his absence leaves them without enough chance creators to feed Harry Kane and Heung-min Son. 

Brighton should actually control most of the midfield exchanges and should be a slight favorite to win this match at home. Tottenham isn’t flying nearly as high as it was at the end of last year, and it will struggle to control this match. I project Brighton as a small favorite at home and like them on the draw no bet line at -110 or better.

Pick: Brighton Draw no Bet (+100) (Caesars)

Crystal Palace vs. Leeds

Dabbundo: Crystal Palace may have lost yet again last weekend, but the positive regression is coming for Patrick Vieira’s side. The Eagles have now led in games against Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City, and have taken just one point from them in the end.

They played Arsenal to about a draw in the underlying numbers. Palace have played only one team that is a bottom-half side by xG difference — Aston Villa — and they crushed them 3-1. The schedule is finally lightening up for Palace. The underlying numbers aren’t good for them, but that’s an unfair expectation given how tough the schedule has been.

The Eagles held Chelsea to 1.0 expected goals and now get to face a Leeds side that are much better at home than on the road. Leeds have played three away matches this season and have no wins and one draw. Brighton and Brentford both outplayed them considerably and won the xG by more than a goal in those matches. 

Leeds will be without livewire winger Luis Sinisterra due to red-card suspension. When these two sides met in the spring at Crystal Palace, the Eagles created more than 1.5 xG and settled for a 0-0 draw. Leeds barely threatened the Palace. 

I get the solidly better team at home at plus money, and I’m betting Palace at +100 or better.

Pick: Crystal Palace +110 (DraftKings)

West Ham vs. Fulham

Cunningham: This Fulham team is painfully direct. Highest direct speed, second fewest passes per sequence, and have 16 direct attacks compared to five build-up attacks (fewest in the Premier League).

The direct correlation to actually consistently creating scoring chances is, well, not good. Fulham have taken 56 shots and have 5.06 xG from open play; only Bournemouth has a lower output in the Premier League. 

Fulham is also very reliant on Aleksander Mitrovic to score all of their goals considering he has 5.0 of their 9.1 xG on the season. He is questionable to play in this match, so if he’s out, I am not sure how Fulham is going to create anything against David Moyes' defense, which has been pretty good this season. 

The Hammers are allowing 0.86 npxG per match, which is third in the Premier League. Over the last five matches, which included Tottenham and Chelsea, West Ham has allowed a total of only 3.2 expected goals. Moyes is back to his old ways of sitting in a low block because West Ham is dead last in PPDA, are 15th in field tilt, but it’s been successful. 

As for Fulham, they’ve been bad defensively. They’ve held only one opponent under one expected goal, but they have the midfield to compete in this match because Palhiniha will be back from yellow-card suspension. Plus, West Ham has not been threatening offensively. They average only 0.83 npxG and created only four big scoring chances on the season. 

I have BTTS-No projected at -122, so I like the value on +110. 

Pick: Both Teams to Score- No (+110)