Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Preview & Predictions: Our 4 Best Bets, Featuring Fulham vs. Aston Villa

It's time for a little midweek Premier League action, as the schedule becomes even more congested with the World Cup looming in a month.

BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.

Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the midweek Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way. They'll also provide their individual model projections for the games.

If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.

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Cunningham's Model Projections

Dabbundo's Model Projections

Brentford vs. Chelsea 

Cunningham: Brentford got a result that they maybe didn’t deserve against Brighton on Friday, but it proves once again that the Bees are incredibly difficult to play at the Brentford Community Stadium.

Manchester United and Arsenal have gone there this season, United were pummeled 4-0 and Arsenal won 3-0, but they only won the xG battle 1.0 to 0.50.

Since their promotion, the Bees have a +0.9 xGD in games against the big six and the only matches they’ve actually lost the xG battle was Liverpool & Manchester City last season and Arsenal this year. 

When Chelsea went to play Brentford on the road last season, they won the match 1-0, but Brentford completely dominated the chance creation aspect of the match. They beat them 2.16 to 0.31 on xG, outshooting Chelsea 17 to 5, and had 43 touches in Chelsea’s penalty area.

What is interesting is the timing of that match, as it was out of an international break and the previous match Chelsea had put up 3.6 xG against Southampton. It was truly an unbelievable performance from Brentford. 

image via infogol.net

In his two meetings against Graham Potter last season, Thomas Frank held Brighton to just 1.1 xG, no big scoring chances and just six shots from inside the penalty area. This is also Chelsea's third straight road match in seven days.

I only have Chelsea projected at +125, so I love the value on Brentford +1 at -141, which is currently available at BetRivers.

Pick: Brentford +1 (-141)

Manchester United vs. Tottenham

Cunningham: This line has crashed since opening, with United opening at +120 and now down to +145, so it looks like the market is finally respecting Tottenham, as they should. 

You look at the final xG from the Manchester United/Newcastle match and you would think it was probably pretty even, but 0.44 of Manchester United’s 1.08 xG came on the Marcus Rashford header that went wide in the 94th minute. So, United created 0.64 xG off of 14 shots.

Tottenham’s low block has been effective this season, as they’re allowing 0.90 xG to teams not named Arsenal. Manchester United’s offense has really not been that good, as they are very reliant on big scoring chances.

They are ninth in shots per 90 minutes, but fifth in big scoring chances allowed and which defense has allowed the fewest big scoring chances in the Premier League? That's right Tottenham, with only allowed five in ten matches. 

Even if we throw out all of last years data, in which Tottenham was a full goal better on xG since Conte took over, Manchester United is at a -0.10 xGD per 90 minutes, while Tottenham is at +0.50.

I have Tottenham projected as a favorite, so I love the value on the Draw No Bet line.

Pick: Tottenham – Draw No Bet (+107 via BetRivers)

Fulham vs. Aston Villa

Dabbundo: Fulham had an excellent start to their new campaign in the Premier League, but there are troubling regression signals looming for the Cottagers.

Their attack has run extremely well this season as it is just 16th in xG per 90 created. One major source of the attack is direct play up the wings and crosses into Aleksandar Mitrovic. The Cottagers are the most direct attacking team in the league and rank sixth in crosses completed into the penalty area.

They have 16 goals from 11 xG this season and have been due for attacking regression dating back to last season’s unsustainable over-performance.

They’re also offering very little resistance to opposing teams from getting into their penalty area. Fulham is dead last in big scoring chances allowed and 17th in box entries.

You may not like Aston Villa’s attacking numbers, but by far the best unit in this match is the Villains' defense. Villa is excellent at stopping crosses — a major key against Fulham — and the defense has allowed the third fewest box entries in the league.

Villa’s defense is legitimately elite and the box entries numbers going forward suggest positive regression is coming for them in attack too. I know that I’ve been saying that for a while under Steven Gerrard but the 2.4 xG created against Chelsea is a glimmer of hope that maybe things will improve. 

Villa has been more than a half goal better than Fulham this season, so even when you factor in home field advantage, Villa should be the favorite here. 

Pick: Aston Villa Draw no Bet (-124) (BetRivers)

Leicester City vs. Leeds United

Dabbundo: Leeds had an encouraging performance against Arsenal on Sunday, even though the Peacocks lost 1-0 on a first half goal from the Gunners.

They created more than 2 xG, including the penalty, and they held Arsenal under 1. The Gunners' possession system was completely stifled by Leeds constant ball pressure and the Peacocks were able to quickly move the ball vertically and threaten the Arsenal penalty area consistently.

Better finishes or a converted penalty would have seen a very different result on Sunday and potentially a different price in this match. Leeds have been better than Leicester by every metric imaginable this year. Leeds is 10th defensively and sixth in attacking non-penalty xG per 90. Leicester is 14th in attack and 12th defensively.

The Foxes still have a major problem in goal with Danny Ward, who has been the worst goalie in the league to this point, and they are conceding the fourth-most big scoring chances.

My projections have Leeds as the better team in this match and once factoring in home field advantage, I make Leicester a small home favorite. However, it's not enough to get to this line, and a suspension for James Maddison only further blunts the underperforming Foxes attack.

Pick: Leeds +0.5 (-148) (BetRivers)