Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Preview & Predictions: Our 4 Best Bets, Featuring Nottingham vs. Leicester 

We are back from the international break with a full slate of Premier League action, which includes a North London Derby and a Manchester Derby.

BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.

Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be taking you through the Champions League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way. They'll also provide their individual model projections for the games.

If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.

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Cunningham's Model Projections

Dabbundo's Model Projections

Crystal Palace vs. Chelsea

Cunningham:

Great spot here for Crystal Palace, which hasn’t played a Premier League match in 28 days. Hopefully in that amount of time Patrick Vieira has figured out some of his defensive issues. Since the start of last season, at Selhurst Park, Crystal Palace has a +1.1 xGD against the big six. So far, Palace hasn’t held an opponent under 1.0 xG. That being said, it put up a great fight toward the end of last season at home against Chelsea and held them to 1.1 xG, only 19 touches in the penalty area and six box entries. 

The question we now have is how much of a difference does Graham Potter make because Chelsea was much better in his only match in charge against Salzburg, holding them to 0.2 xG. The one thing Potters’ Brighton teams excelled at was counter pressing with guys like Bissouma, Mwepu and Caicedo. I am not sure if he has the midfield personnel at this juncture to counter press like he would like to, but Chelsea is third in PPDA. Also, this Chelsea team has a -1.5 npxG in six matches and only one of them was against the big six. That is a bit concerning.

I only have Chelsea projected at +118, so I like Crystal Palace +0.5 at +105 (BetRivers). 

The Pick: Crystal Palace +0.5 (+105)

Bournemouth vs. Brentford

Dabbundo:

This is a good sell-high spot on two attacks that have vastly overperformed their underlying attacking numbers at this point in the season. Both Brentford and Bournemouth rank in the top five in goals minus expected goals, a measure of how much you’ve benefited from finishing variance. Brentford and Bournemouth are up with Arsenal, Spurs and Manchester City, which is unsustainable given the lower quality of their attackers in general.

image via fbref.com

The Cherries have the fewest box entries, fewest shots and fewest big scoring chances created in the league. No team has produced fewer expected goals per match than Bournemouth.

Since joining the Premier League last year, Brentford’s attack has been considerably weaker on the road. In 22 games away from home, Brentford has produced 24.2 expected goals, slightly better than one per game.

You can also make the case both defenses have some positive regression coming for them. No defense has run worse variance wise than Leicester City, but Brentford and Bournemouth’s defenses have combined to concede 31 goals from 22 expected goals.

Brentford, at times, struggled on the road last season and I fully expect the onus to be on them to produce chances in this match. The Cherries offer very little going forward, but have held up decently well against non-big six sides to this point.

The Pick: Under 2.5 (-110) – Bet365

West Ham vs. Wolves

Dabbundo: This is a good buy-low on two attacks that are vastly underperforming. Wolves and West Ham have combined for more than 12.5 xG between them this season, but have produced just six combined actual goals. Finishing variance points toward both of these attacks breaking out of their slumps and there is pressure on both managers after a lackluster beginning to the season.

West Ham’s defense is also overperforming its numbers. The Hammers rank third in non-penalty xG allowed, but nothing in the rest of their statistical defensive profile suggests that is sustainable. For example, the Hammers are 13th in box entries allowed and 8th in big scoring chances. So, they’re allowing teams into their box and those teams aren’t capitalizing on opportunities presented to them.

The Wolves midfield doesn’t do much ball stopping either (11th in progressive passes allowed) and will be without center back Nathan Collins after he was sent off against Manchester City.

I expected regression for both clubs and both have certainly struggled to begin the new year, but it’s a good spot to back a more open game than the market indicates. Both games between these teams finished 1-0 last year, but were much more open than those scores indicate. 

The Pick: Both Teams to Score (-106) – Bet365

Nottingham vs. Leicester 

Cunningham: This the most perfect Monday afternoon soccer match that we could have asked for. My question is this: what has Leicester shown so far that makes them a deserving -135 favorite at home? 

They’re good at progressing the ball up field, playing through pressure and getting into the final third, but once they get there they only have 7.2 xG and two big scoring chances to show for it. 

Also, Danny Ward might be one of the worst keepers we’ve ever seen in the Premier League as he is currently at a -6.1 Post-shot xG +/- in seven matches. Plus, now that Leicester sold Fofana, this is essentially the same defense that was one of the worst in the Premier League last season and allowed 1.61 xG per match.

Tottenham put on a counter attacking clinic against Leicester last Saturday and that is the exact same style Nottingham Forest plays. 

Listen, Nottingham Forest has been really bad. They’ve allowed the most expected goals in the Premier League and are allowing a ton of shots, but they’ve only allowed nine big scoring chances, which is top 10 in the Premier League. 

The biggest thing I like for Nottingham Forest here is they spent so much money and brought in all of these new pieces to try and play a very specific system and a lot of the pieces didn’t really fit how Steve Cooper wants to play. Now that they’ve had some time with some breaks, I think we will see Nottingham Forest start to improve toward maybe getting out of the relegation zone because there is no denying that there is talent all over the pitch for them. 

I only have Leicester projected at -102, so give me the Trees +0.5 at +115 (BetRivers). 

The Pick: Nottingham Forest +0.5 (+115)