With Manchester City dropping points at Crystal Palace on Monday and Liverpool earned a 2-0 win against Arsenal on Wednesday, we officially have a title race on our hands in the Premier League.
Only a single point separates the Reds from the first-place Cityzens, making things extremely exciting in the English top flight as we head into the business part of the schedule.
What a flick by Firmino for the goal!
Liverpool score their second goal in eight minutes to take a 2-0 lead.
📺: @peacockTV#ARSLIVpic.twitter.com/l4I6ZH0ITa— NBC Sports Soccer (@NBCSportsSoccer) March 16, 2022
This weekend, the FA Cup quarterfinals are in action, so we have a shortened slate of just four matches. However, there is one big fixture on Sunday that will be very impactful to the top four race, with Tottenham hosting West Ham United in their latest London derby.
If you'd like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here. You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.
Premier League Projections
Best Bets
Wolves vs. Leeds United
| Wolves Odds | +110 |
| Leeds United Odds | +240 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-115 / -115) |
| Day | Time | Friday | 4 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network | fuboTV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Wolves is obviously the most overrated EPL team, sporting a plus-6 actual goal differential with a -12.6 xGDiff this season. Their offense is now totally over-performing, scoring five goals in their last two matches off 1.8 xG and only creating more than one xG once in their last eight matches.
Well, what better time than now to break out against this Leeds defense.
Yes, Leeds has improved defensively in manager Jesse Marsch’s three matches in charge, allowing a total of 3.1 xG, which is an improvement to the 1.76 xG allowed per match under former boss Marcelo Bielsa.
That being said, this isn't a great matchup for them playing a heavy counterattacking team like Wolverhampton. The last time these they met, Wolves scored in the 10th minutes and packed it in for the rest of the match before a Rodrigo penalty tied it up in the 94th minute.
It was a weird game plan from Wolves, who had plenty of opportunities to hit Leeds on the counter, but just couldn’t put them away.
While Wolves' defense is overrated, they're outstanding at preventing high-quality chances. They’ve conceded only 23 big scoring chances, which is the fourth-best mark in the league. Additionally, their defense has put up back-to-back good performances, allowing only 0.9 xG to Watford and 0.5 xG to Everton, per fbref.com.
I have Wolverhampton projected at -101, so I do like the small amount of value on them at home at +116 odds via Caesars and will make it my top selection.
Pick: Wolves ML (+116)
Leicester City vs. Brentford
| Leicester City Odds | +105 |
| Brentford Odds | +260 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-120 / -115) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network | fuboTV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
What is somewhat shocking is how bad the Leicester City's offense has been of late. The Foxes have only created only 5.5 xG in their last six matches, which is not good considering how bad their defense continues to be giving up 9.1 xG in those six games.
Now enters a Brentford side that's starting to see some of that positive regression they were due for this season.
🅰 @ChrisEriksen8
⚽ @IvanToney24🔝 Class all-round for today's opener #BrentfordFCpic.twitter.com/0RGSc66SYx
— Brentford FC (@BrentfordFC) March 12, 2022
In the Bees' last two matches, even though they were against Norwich City and Burnley, they created 3.9 xG and that's what you are supposed to do against relegation sides.
Leicester is sitting very comfortably in the mid-table with no real shot of challenging for the top seven, plus it has a Europa Conference League match with Rennes next Thursday. So, the Foxes don't have much to play for here.
Brentford will have a massive advantage on corners in this match. The Bees are the most efficient team in the league, averaging 0.10 xG per corner, while Leicester has allowed a whopping 12 goals and 0.13 xG per corner this season.
I only have Leicester City projected at +142 for this match, so I like the value on Brentford getting +0.5 goals on the spread line at -130 on DraftKings and will make it my top pick.
Pick: Brentford +0.5 (-130)
