Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Projections: Our 2 Midweek Best Bets, Featuring Southampton & Leeds (March 10)

Everything stayed the status quo this past weekend in the Premier League, as Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea all won their respective matches.

One of the bigger victories came when Arsenal earned a 3-2 road triumph against Watford, while West Ham United and Manchester United lost their games. That means the Gunners’ top-four chances are looking better and better by the day.

The Premier League schedule is going to be jam-packed from now until the end of the season because of all of the earlier postponements. And it gets this week with four Thursday fixtures.

If you'd like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here. You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Premier League Projections

Best Bets

Southampton vs. Newcastle

This is a good buy low/sell high spot for Southampton and Newcastle United. The Saints are coming off getting a 4-0 drubbing against Aston Villa last time out, but the result wasn’t as bad as it seemed.

Southampton ended up holding 62% possession, its PPDA was 8.23 and still created close to 1.0 expected goal in defeat. Newcastle earned a 2-1 win against Brighton & Hove Albion, but the xG battle was pretty even and the losing side held 68% of the possession. The Seagulls also had 32 touches in the penalty area compared to only 17 for Newcastle, per fbref.com.

The Magpies are on a good run of form as they try to exit the relegation fight, but their underlying results scream of a team due for negative regression.

In its last six matches, excluding the contest against Brentford where it was up a man after the 10th minutes, Newcastle has a +5 actual goal differential, but a 2.3 xGDiff this season.

*(graphic via infogol.net)

There are some matchup problems here for Newcastle as well. The Magpies don’t play well through pressure. In fact, since the transfer window, their Offensive PPDA is 8.41, which is fifth worst in the EPL, per understat.com. So, they’re likely going to struggle against Southampton’s frenetic pressing.

When these sides met earlier this season, I understand the circumstances were different, but Southampton dominated Newcastle on the road, putting up 3.6 xG to only 1.4 from it opponent, but was unlucky play to a 2-2 draw.

Also, Southampton is much better at the Saint Mary’s Stadium than it is on the road. The Saints have a +5.3 xGDiff at home, versus a -7.6 xGD on the road. 

So, I like the spot for Southampton via a moneyline wager on home soil at +100 odds against an overrated Newcastle side.

Pick: Southampton ML (+100)

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Leeds vs. Aston Villa

Manager Jesse Marsch somehow came in and fixed Leeds defensive problems in one match because the club only allowed 0.32 xG and seven shots to Leicester City.

On the flip side, Leeds was able to create 1.95 xG of 19 shots. Marsch switched Leeds to a 4-2-3-1 formation, which is what he mainly played at RB Leipzig and it definitely gave his side more structure.

Leeds' pressing wasn’t really that successful, finishing with only a 25.6% pressure success rate and 11.2 PPDA in the game. That's a tad concerning considering the Peacocks had more than 190 pressures, which is over the average under former manager Marcelo Bielsa.

However, they should have an easier time pressing here, considering Aston Villa is third to last in the league in Offensive PPDA and struggled versus the press the first time by allowing a 39% pressure success rate, per fbref.com.

There are a couple big boosts for Leeds in the personnel department. Patrick Bamford looks like he’s going to be back and Kalvin Phillips might make a return, with latter player coming back being huge for the defense to continue to trend in the right direction.

Aston Villa’s match against Southampton this past Saturday was the first time under manager Steven Gerrard they’ve created more than two xG in a game. The Villans are still averaging only 1.15 xG per contest under him, and with the improvements shown in the Leeds defense, this is a good spot for the Peacocks to get a result.

I have this match projected right at Pick'em, so I like Leeds as a slight underdog on the Draw No Bet line at +105 odds at DraftKings and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Leeds — Draw No Bet (+105)