Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Projections: Our 3 Best Bets, Featuring Manchester United & Spurs (March 12-14)

We have a true Premier League title race between Liverpool and Manchester City on our hands as we head down the stretch, with both facing tricky spots on the road on this weekend's slate.

Around the rest of the English top flight, the relegation battle has also really started to heat up. Take a look:

This latest slate is headlined by a huge match on Saturday that will go a long way in deciding the order of the top seven, as Manchester United hosts Tottenham at Old Trafford.

If you'd like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here. You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Premier League Projections

Best Bets

Brentford vs. Burnley 

Brentford's performance against Norwich City this past Saturday is the culmination of a lot of overdue positive regression for the club. Since their bad run started on January 11th, the Bees picked up only four points in nine matches, but based on expected points, they should have 10.14, per understat.com.

The game against Norwich also signaled the return of Ivan Toney, who is vitally important to Brentford’s offense considering he has nine goals. His 0.52 xG + xA per 90 minute rate is the best rate on the team, per fbref.com.

Burnley has put up back-to-back really bad defensive performances against Leicester City and Chelsea, allowing six goals and four big scoring chances. So, this is — yet again — a great spot for Brentford to get a positive result.

The biggest thing with this match is that the home/road numbers for these clubs is quite drastic, as you can see below:

That said, I have Brentford projected at -114, so I like the value on the the host side on the moneyline at +120 odds to grab all three points.

Pick: Brentford ML (+120)

Man United vs. Spurs 

The matches against Atlético Madrid and Manchester City have truly shown this Manchester United team hasn’t changed a bit. The Red Devils got completely dominated in the latest Manchester derby last time out, allowing four goals and 2.7 xG in the defeat.

In fact, Manchester United didn’t even have a shot the entire second half.

Now, the Tottenham defense isn’t anywhere near the level of Manchester City. Sure, Spurs beat Everton in a 5-0 rout on Monday, but in the seven games prior to that win, they conceded 11.2 xG and only two of those opponents are currently in the top seven in the table.

Overall , Tottenham is 13th in shots allowed per 90 minutes and 10th in big scoring chances yielded. The side also isn't great pressing, as it's 10th in PPDA, 17th in pressure success rate and has the fewest high turnovers in the EPL, per Opta. That’s huge for United, which has really struggled playing through pressure, ranking 15th in pressure success rate allowed.

The Red Devils should be getting Cristiano Ronaldo back in the lineup, which will be a big boost. Even though the Red Devils have played a relatively easy schedule under manager Ralf Rangnick, they still average 1.60 xG per match.

The price is pretty high, but I have the Both Teams to Score (Yes) wager projected at -190, so at the current price of -155 odds, there's some value. 

Pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes (-155)

Crystal Palace vs. Man City

What a spot this is for Crystal Palace at home with a chance to take down one of the big boys yet again. The home/road splits for the Eagles are quite drastic, but what’s even more shocking is how good they’ve been against top sides at Selhurst Park.

In four matches at home against Tottenham, West Ham United, Liverpool, and Chelsea, the Eagles have a +2.4 xGDiff overall. For the season, Crystal Palace has a +8.4 xGDiff and only allowing 0.89 xG per match on home soil.

Crystal Palace actually handed Manchester City one of their three losses on the season back in October, beating them in a 2-0 shocker at Etihad Stadium. Now, Manchester City did get a red card in the 45th minute, but Wilfried Zaha scored in the sixth minute and Palace ended up holding City to only 1.1 xG and 14 shots in the victory. 

Manchester City has been in weird form since the start of the new year. If you throw out the drubbing of lowly Norwich, the Cityzens only have a +0.88 xGDiff per match, which sounds great. However, when you compare that to their last season's form where they were at a +1.83 xGDiff/90 minutes, it shows they're level of play has dipped a tad.

Additionally, the injury to Rúben Dias is a blow, even though City does have depth, because he's far and away its best center back.

I only have Manchester City projected as a -1.07 favorite on the spread line, so there is value on Crystal Palace +1.5 at +100 odds and will make it my top pick. 

Pick: Crystal Palace +1.5 (+100)

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