After three rounds of matches, who would have thought Arsenal would been at the top of the Premier League table with Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester United all sitting in the bottom half of the English top flight?
Well, this weekend is about the Big Six avoiding potential huge upsets with some intriguing mid-table clashes.
BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through another set of games with their best bets on the slate.
The pair, which is part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be taking you through the English top flight each week, delivering their favorite picks. They'll also provide their individual model projections for every EPL match.
If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.
Cunningham's Model Projections
Dabbundo's Model Projections
Southampton vs. Man United
| Southampton Odds | +320 |
| Man United Odds | -130 |
| Draw | +290 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-165 / +120) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network | fuboTV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Dabbundo: Manchester United shocked the soccer world with its upset of Liverpool this past Monday and the market responded accordingly.
The Red Devils immediately jumped from -105 on the moneyline to its current price of -130 odds. From a stylistic point of view, this would seem like a pretty favorable matchup for United. A Southampton team which looks to press could help the forwards create a handful of big scoring chances.
However, much like we shouldn’t overreact to two games where United was really bad against Brentford and Brighton & Hove Albion, we can’t overreact to one game where it played well. That Liverpool match, in my view, had as much to do with the Jürgen Klopp's midfield and attacking spine not being to task.
United’s forwards did an excellent job pressing from the front and disrupting Liverpool, but the latter won the expected threat metric by a 2.2-0.8 margin. The Red Devils also managed just 14.9 passes per defensive action. Liverpool didn’t create any big chances and United did, thus the later deserved the win. But, the onus will be on United here to control the possession and initiate action.
It’s a lot to ask United to be an odds-on road favorite now against Southampton side that hasn’t been as bad through three matches as people expected or especially after its 4-1 defeat to Tottenham on opening day.
Fade the market overreaction and hold your nose on Southampton at home.
Dabbundo's Pick: Southampton +0.5 (+110)
Man City vs. Crystal Palace
| Man City Odds | -550 |
| Crystal Palace Odds | +1100 |
| Draw | +625 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+100 / -135) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Cunningham: Under 14 matches against the Big Six with manager Patrick Vieira at the helm, we've seen Crystal Palace rack up a combined 14.7 xG, 19.2 xGA that leads to only a -4.5 xGDiff overall. And I don’t think most people understand how impressive that is for mid-table club to pull off.
As the Eagles have shown, even in the match against Liverpool, they profile so well as underdogs because of their ability to sit deep and prevent teams from creating a lot of high-quality chances. The match against Liverpool (1.7 xG from 24 total shots and one big scoring chance) was a perfect example.
Not to mention, Crystal Palace dealt Manchester City a 2-0 loss at Etihad Stadium last season and then held it to a 0-0 draw at Selhurst Park.
The Eagles were a top-five defense in the EPL in terms of xGA, shots allowed per 90 minutes, big scoring chances conceded and box entries yielded. In fact, they only allowed 0.68 big scoring chances per match.
The Newcastle vs. Manchester City match is a perfect example of not overreacting to one game. Do you really think Newcastle would have played that aggressive or open if it didn’t concede in the first six minutes? I say no.
So, unless there's an early goal, Crystal Palace is likely going to employ the same game plan it had against Liverpool, except they’ll be facing a City team that is more pragmatic (slowest direct speed and high sequence time last season) that's going to try to control 70% possession.
I only have Manchester City’s spread projected at -1.65, so I love the value on Crystal Palace +2 at +104 odds.
Cunningham's Pick: Crystal Palace +2 (+104)
Brighton vs. Leeds
| Brighton Odds | -115 |
| Leeds Odds | +260 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-125 / -110) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network | fuboTV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Cunningham: Brighton looks as impressive as ever so far this season.
Through three matches, the Seagulls have racked up 4.2 xG and conceded just 2.6 xGA overall.
As for Leeds, if we go from when manager Jesse Marsch took over the club at the beginning of March until today, this is what the stats look like:
Since March 5, 2021
That said, this is a bad matchup for the visitor and has been every time it faces Brighton. First, Leeds is terrible at playing through pressure. Through their first three games, the Peacocks have the third lowest Offensive PPDA in the league.
Secondly, the Seagulls will be able to play through their foe's frenetic pressing. The hosts were fourth in pressure success rate allowed and sixth in Offensive PPDA a season ago, according to understat.com.
Defensively, Leeds hasn't been good under Marsch and that has translated to this season as well. Outside Nottingham Forest, the club has allowed the second most xG from open play, per The Analyst. And do you want to know who has allowed the fewest goals in that area? You guessed it. Brighton at 1.47 xG in three matches, per The Analyst.
That is one of my favorite stats to show how dominant Brighton can be against lesser sides. At home last season against the bottom half of the table, the Seagulls finished with a combined 14.6 xG and only 7.9 xGA overall.
I have Brighton projected at -133, so I like the value on the side at -113 odds and would play it up to -115 as my top selection.
Cunningham's Pick: Brighton ML (-115)
Arsenal vs. Fulham Odds
| Arsenal Odds | -300 |
| Fulham Odds | +625 |
| Draw | +450 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 ( +115/ -160) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | NBC | Peacock Premium | fuboTV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Dabbundo: Arsenal, which has been the most impressive EPL team through three matches, is the only side to earn all nine possible points. Next up for the surprise leader is a home London derby against Fulham.
I’ve seen the Gunners as a touch overvalued in the market heading into their last two matches, but didn’t think Leicester City's defense or AFC Bournemouth’s attack would really be able to trouble them.
Fulham’s excellent work rate off the ball, direct attacks and improved midfield can all cause some problems for manager Mikel Arteta’s side. The Cottagers have allowed the fourth fewest shot-creating actions, rank top six in box entries allowed and rank out in the top five in successful pressures inside their own final third of the pitch.
Palhinha and Andreas Pereira have especially improved Fulham’s midfield and, thus, the defensive metrics. I don't expect Arsenal to continue to convert chances at the rate they have this season as well. Through three fixtures, Arteta’s squad has turned roughly 5.4 xG into nine goals, which has inflated the spread ahead of this match.
While the Gunners had little issue dispatching the weaker resistance of Leicester City and Bournemouth, Fulham presents a more similar challenge than Crystal Palace did on opening day. And even though Arsenal did secure a 2-0 in that game, expected goals suggested it was quite fortunate to do so as the game ended even on chances created.
Arsenal should win this match, but my projected spread is just 1.1 goals and not close to the 1.5 goals it ballooned to after it's 4-0 win against Bournemouth.
Dabbundo's Pick: Fulham +1.5 (+100)
