We're through five weeks of the Premier League season, with Arsenal sitting atop the table.
This weekend we have an amazing Sunday headliner featuring the Gunners hitting the road for their first big test when they face Manchester United.
BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through this latest set of contests with their best bets on the slate.
The pair, which is part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be taking you through the English top flight each week, delivering their favorite picks. They'll also provide their individual model projections for every EPL match.
If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.
Cunningham's Model Projections
Dabbundo's Model Projections
Wolves vs. Southampton
| Wolves Odds | +115 |
| Southampton Odds | +230 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-110 / -125) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Dabbundo: Wolverhampton was held scoreless yet again against Bournemouth on the road in the midweek, despite creating 1.5 expected goals. Wolves have just two goals in five EPL matches, one which came in the opening 10 minutes of their season opener against Leeds United and another via a long-range Ruben Neves strike against Newcastle United.
Wolverhampton isn't a good attacking side at all, but it's better than its early season results have indicated. The club has produced 5.6 xG in five games (1.12 per match), per Understat, which isn’t great but not as bad as its current 0.4 goals scored per contest.
Wolves' inability to score is part of the reason the market on the Both Teams To Score (Yes) wager has come down. They did add Sasa Kalajdzic from Stuttgart to help solve their striker issue, but even if he doesn’t play they face a Southampton defense still conceding a ton of big scoring chances.
Even in the Saints' win against Chelsea in the midweek, the latter was able to produce two big scoring chances and nearly a third opportunity.
Southampton finished last season with the most big scoring chances allowed in the league. Wolves' defense is also once again beating xG, but this hasn’t been because of goalkeeper Jose Sá’s brilliance. Instead, Wolverhampton has been the beneficiary of opponents’ shooting poorly against it.
Wolves followed a similar pattern as a team early in the season with a bunch of low-scoring games, but the market has shifted too low on them and the goals are coming in their matches.
I'm backing Both Teams To Score (Yes) at -135 odds or better.
The Pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes (-130)
Forest vs. Bournemouth
| Forest Odds | +100 |
| Bournemouth Odds | +270 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+100 / -135) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Dabbundo: The game between Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth is a matchup of the two worst teams in my Premier League ratings. They're also expected to finish at the bottom of the table.
Both sides have struggled defensively against the top sides in the league: Bournemouth allowed 16 goals to Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City. Nottingham Forest allowed eight to Tottenham and Manchester City.
If we look at the bigger picture and these clubs' time in the Championship and early season EPL returns, both are due for negative attacking regression. The Cherries vastly over-performed their underlying attacking metrics and actually had excellent defensive numbers in the second division. In two matches against Aston Villa and Wolves, they’ve conceded one xG per outing.
I like the under in this match because the early season schedules have made the defenses look much worse than they would have been rated coming into the season. Bournemouth showed a solid defensive work rate without the ball in the game against Wolves, plus Forest has still only produced two goals, one of which came on a fluke deflection against West Ham United.
As bad as the defenses are, neither attack is good enough to really take advantage. Bournemouth will sit deep and let Forest have the ball and dare them to beat it. These sides played to a 1-0 game in the spring and my projected total is just 2.28 goals for this match.
The Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-125)
Brighton vs. Leicester
| Brighton Odds | -115 |
| Leicester Odds | +300 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-115 / -120) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Cunningham: Brighton & Hove Albion looks incredible to begin the season, winning the xG battle in each of their first five matches and putting up a +2.4 xGDiff in the process.
In terms of matchups, it doesn't get much better for the Seagulls. First off, Brighton has been one of the more efficient set-piece teams in the Premier League since Graham Potter took the reins. Leicester City has featured the worst set-piece defense in the EPL, allowing a whopping 20.01 xG last season.
Secondly, Brighton is fantastic against non-Big Six teams when it plays at American Express Community Stadium.
Der Kaiser does it again! 👑 @BrightonToolspic.twitter.com/UV0rcWzGIs
— Brighton & Hove Albion (@OfficialBHAFC) August 27, 2022
Since the start of last season, Brighton has 21.7 xG and only 12.7 xGA in 15 matches. In contrast, Leicester has -11.7 xGDiff away from home since the start of last season.
That said, the Seagulls should be able to dominate in the midfield and one the best indicators of that is progressive passes plus dribbles. Since the start of the last campaign, Brighton is top six offensively and defensively, while Leicester is 12th overall.
I have Brighton projected at -127 on the moneyline, so I love the value on the host at -115 and would play it up to -120 odds.
The Pick: Brighton ML (-115)
Man United vs. Arsenal
| Man United Odds | +155 |
| Arsenal Odds | +200 |
| Draw | +155 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-145 / +105) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network | fuboTV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Cunningham: On what planet should this version Manchester United be a slight favorite against the hottest team in the Premier League?
If we from when Ole Gunnar Solskjær was fired on November 20th, each club has played 30 matches. In those 30 matches Arsenal has a +27.5 xGD, Manchester United is only at +3.
Yes, Manchester United has won three straight matches against Liverpool, Southampton, and Leicester. The Red Devils only have a +0.1 xGD in those four matches. Arsenal on the other hand has won five straight matches and has a +7.3 xGDiff overall.
*(Rankings from the 2021-22 Premier League season)
Let's also not forget that this was a Manchester United defense last season that allowed 1.44 xG per match last season, which was 11th in the Premier League. Additionally, Manchester United against Big Six clubs had a -10.9 xGDiff in only 10 matches.
I have Arsenal projected as a +127 favorite, so I love them on the Draw no Bet Line at -109 odds.
The Pick: Arsenal — Draw No Bet (-109)
