Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Projections: Our Best Bets, Featuring Crystal Palace vs. Chelsea (Feb. 19-20)

The Premier League races are starting to heat up for the spots in the top four and relegation positions, with this weekend's matches being vital for the clubs currently in those battles.

Everything went according to plan this past weekend, minus a fairly big upset that came when Wolves earned a 2-0 upset victory against Tottenham at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

The latest slate is headlined by a huge clash at Etihad Stadium, with title and top-four implications on the line when Manchester City hosts Spurs. There some other intriguing encounters, such as Newcastle United going for its fourth consecutive road at West Ham United. We also have Chelsea traveling to Selhurst Park for its latest London derby against Crystal Palace.

If you'd like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here. You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Premier League Projections

Best Bets

Crystal Palace vs. Chelsea

This is an unbelievable opportunity for Crystal Palace to pick off Chelsea in a lookahead spot to Tuesday's Champions League match against Lille. The Eagles' home performances have been so much better than on the road, putting up a +8.2 xGDiff, which is fourth best in the Premier League.

They’ve given the top teams in the league a lot of trouble when they’ve had to come to Selhurst Park as well. Against Tottenham, Wolves, West Ham and Liverpool, Crystal Palace won the xG battle in all four of those matches and had a +4.8 xGDiff as a result.

The Eagles' defense has been outstanding, allowing only 1.1 NPxG per match and 18 big scoring chances, both of which are fourth in the English top flight. The one weakness of the Palace defense is it allows too many crosses to be completed in its own penalty area. The Eagles are actually the worst team in the league in that category.

Chelsea isn't going to be able to exploit that weakness, as they’re 16th in crosses completed in the penalty area.

The Blues have had some pretty uninspiring offensive performances of late. They weren’t able to create much in their two matches at the FIFA Club World Cup, but even before that they’ve been unable to generate more than one xG in their last three EPL matches against Manchester City, Brighton & Hove Albion and Tottenham.

Also, Mason Mount looks like he's going to miss this match, which would be a blow for Chelsea considering he leads the team in xG plus xA per 90 minutes.

Also, over the past two seasons, Chelsea is the second-least profitable team as a Premier League favorite entering a match.

I only have Chelsea projected at +118 odds, so I love Crystal Palace getting +1 on the spread line at -145 odds or better and will make it my top selection.

Pick: Crystal Palace +1 (-145)

Southampton vs. Everton

Everton put in maybe its best performance of the season last Saturday in a 3-0 rout against Leeds United at Goodison Park.

Now, obviously a lot has changed since the first weekend of the season, but the Toffees did open their EPL campaign dominating Southampton in a 3-1 victory and winning the battle of xG by a 2.4-0.7 margin.

Everton is somewhat healthy ahead of this match and was able to bring in a lot of reinforcements in the January transfer window, like Dele Alli and Donny van de Beek. The biggest thing, though, is having both Richarlison and Dominic Calvert-Lewin healthy and playing at the same time. When they're playing, Everton averages 1.38 xG per match; without them, it drops to 1.03 xG per tilt.

Everton has struggled most of the season playing through pressure, which isn't good news facing one of the most frenetic pressing teams in the league. However, Leeds, which leads the EPL in pressures per 90 minutes, only had a 25% pressure success rate against Everton this past weekend.

Southampton has been playing well through a fairly difficult part of its schedule, but the performances at the Saint Mary’s Stadium haven’t been that dominant. They only have a +1.2 xGDiff, including a whopping seven draws in 11 home matches, which leads the Premier League.

Additionally, Southampton isn’t that great at playing through pressure, as it's 16th in Offensive PPDA, while Everton has the fourth-best pressure success rate in the EPL this season, per fbref.com.

I only have Southampton projected as a slight favorite, so I like Everton getting +0.5 on the spread line at -120 and would play it to -130 odds.

Pick: Everton +0.5 (-120)

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Leeds vs. Man United

You could say the Leeds defense is due for some positive regression, but it has been pretty bad up this point. Manager Marcelo Bielsa’s side is now dead last in NPxG, allowing at 1.7 per match, per fbref.com. Earlier this season, the Peacocks were limiting teams to fewer shots, but allowing a lot of big scoring chances.

Now, Leeds is conceding way too many shots (15.4 per 90 minutes, per fbref.com) and big scoring chances (15 in their last seven games). So, for an improving Manchester United offense that has created 10.3 xG in its last five matches, they should have no trouble running rampant on the Peacocks. Leeds is still without Liam Cooper as well, plus it will likely be without Stuart Dallas, who is the club's most versatile defender

Manchester United is in a very interesting spot right now as well. The Red Devils, who have played a really easy schedule under interim manager Ralph Rangnick, are starting to turn into the team that's indicative of the talent they have on the squad. The defense is still an issue, though.

In Rangnick’s 12 EPL matches in charge, Manchester United has faced one offense ranked in the top eight in xG, but is still 12th in the league in xGA for the season overall.

You could also say the Red Devils are in a sandwich spot, having to play their third match in a week, along with a huge game against Atlético Madrid on Wednesday in Champions League action. However, they need three points for the race for the top four, so I expect a full-strength lineup in this fixture.

I have the total projected at 3.39 goals, so I love the total clearing three goals at +105 odds on the Asian Handicap and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Total Over 3 Goals (+105)