Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Projections: Our EPL Best Bets, Featuring Brighton vs. Manchester United (May 7-8)

The Premier League title and top-four races staying put after last weekend's games, with Liverpool, Manchester CityTottenham, and Arsenal holding serve.

However, the relegation fight has taken a sudden turn, with Leeds United now the favorite to get relegated after Everton and Burnley both picked up all three points in their latest contests.

This weekend's fixtures are headlined by perhaps the biggest match left on the EPL slate in terms of stakes with Liverpool, fresh off clinching a Champions League final berth, hosting Tottenham at Anfield on Sunday's card. With only a few weeks left in the season the stakes have never been higher.

If you'd like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here. You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Premier League Projections

Best Bets

Brentford vs. Southampton

On the surface, this match doesn’t mean much, with both safely in the middle of table and already securing safety for next season. However, in terms of form, Brentford is the much better side at the moment. 

The Bees have a +2.9 xGDiff in their last eight matches, plus they're averaging 1.49 xG per match. As for Southampton, the club has a -7 xGDiff over their last nine matches and have conceded 1.72 xG per contest. That's a trend with the Saints, who are yielding 1.68 xG per game in the second half of the season. 

The home/road spits for both of these sides is quite drastic as well. Brentford is fantastic in front of its home fans, putting up a +4.9 xGDiff, while Southampton away from the Saint Mary’s Stadium has a -7.5 xGDiff, per fbref.com. The main problem with Southampton is its gives up too many big scoring chances, as its rank last in the EPL in that category, while Brentford is ninth in big scoring chances created. 

Brentford is also fantastic at defending set pieces, allowing only 0.08 xG per set piece, which is one of the best EPL marks. That's big facing James Ward-Prowse, who is the best free-kick taker in the league and has contributed to 14 set-piece goals for Southampton.

I have Brentford projected at -113, so I like the value on the host at +125 odds at home to grab all three points and will make it my top selection.

Pick: Brentford ML +(125)

Crystal Palace vs. Watford

You could say this match means nothing to Crystal Palace, but given the form it's in and the chance of finishing inside the top 10 in the first season under manager Patrick Vieira, I think we will get a full effort from the host.

Watford has been criminally underrated defensively since manager Roy Hodgson has taken over. The Hornets have allowed 29 goals off 22 xG in his 14 matches in charge. The Eagles aren't that great of an offense, averaging only 1.06 NPxG per match, which is 13th in the Premier League, per fbref.com. 

The Eagles are one of the better defensive EPL teams. Vieira’s men are only allowing 1.02 NPxG per outing, which is fourth overall. That number gets even better at home, where they’ve allowed 16 xG in 17 matches at Selhurst Park. They also press at the third highest rate in the English top flight, while Watford is dead last in Offensive PPDA and pressure success rate allowed. 

Crystal Palace has been a Both Teams To Score (No) champion this season, because both teams have each created at least one xG in only nine of their 34 matches overall.

I have the Both Teams To Score (No) wager projected at -154, so I like the value we're currently getting on -110 odds.

Pick: Both Teams to Score — No (-110)

Brighton vs. Man United

I can’t think of a better spot for Brighton & Hove Albion to pick off another top-six side. Manchester United has two matches left in the season, with no hope at finishing inside the top four, so what do they have left to play for? Brighton is battling for a spot inside the top 10, which would be huge considering it would be its highest finish in club history. 

The Seagulls have been in fantastic form since the beginning of April, putting up a +3 xGDiff in a schedule that has included Arsenal, Tottenham and Manchester City. Over that same timeframe, the Red Devils have a -2.1 xGDiff and have allowed 1.47 xG per match, per fbref.com.

The last time these sides met, Brighton completely dominated the first half and won the xG battle by a 0.81-0.40 margin and outshot United by an 8-2 margin. In the second half, though, Cristiano Ronaldo scored from outside the penalty area in the 51st minute and Brighton's Lewis Dunk got a red card four minutes later, so United ended up with a 2-0 win.

Brighton’s ability to control possession and play through pressure is so crucial in a match like this because of how bad United has been with its pressing and ball control this season.

Under interim manager Ralph Rangnick, the Red Devils are 12th in the EPL in PPDA since he took over and they’re going up against the fourth-best team in the league in terms of average possession and Offensive PPDA overall.

That said, I love the Brighton via the Draw No Bet wager at +108 odds on home soil against an unmotivated United team and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Brighton — Draw No Bet (+108)