Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Projections: Our EPL Best Bets, Featuring Manchester United vs. Brentford

The race for the Premier League title, final top-four position and relegation is as high stakes as it gets in European domestic soccer.

There are no big matches, but some difficult spots for Manchester City and Liverpool via road contests against Leeds United and Newcastle United, respectively, in sandwich spots between Champions League matches.

Elsewhere, Arsenal and Tottenham have important games against West Ham United and Leicester City, which are also in difficult situations coming off Europa League and Europa Conference League semifinal-round fixtures.

Then, there's a relegation battle taking place at Vicarage Road when Watford taking on Burnley in manager Roy Hodgson's last-ditch effort to keep the host mathematically alive. As for the Clarets, they look to continue their great escape. Everton, which is now -110 favorites to be relegated, need a result against Chelsea at Goodison Park or one of England's most famous clubs that has been in the top flight since 1955 could be heading to the Championship.

If you'd like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here. You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Premier League Projections

Best Bets

Newcastle vs. Liverpool

Yes, Newcastle has been in incredible from winning four in a row, but it has had an easy schedule up to this point. The Magpies only faced two top-six sides since Jan. 15 (Chelsea & Tottenham), losing both matches and conceding 3.9 expected goals in the process. They haven’t been that dominant, as their actual points accrued since then is 32, but the xP are 23.5, per understat.com.

Newcastle has run a bit hot defensively in that time frame, allowing 13 goals off 16.1 xG overall. The club is still are struggling to play through pressure, which is a massive problem against Liverpool. Newcastle’s Offensive PPDA since Jan. 15 is 8.14, which is 17th in the English top flight during that time. Liverpool is the best pressing team in England by any metric, including 11.5 high turnovers per match, per Opta.

This is a tough spot for Liverpool, with this game falling between UCL semifinal tilts, but it's still high stakes for it with the club being behind Manchester City by only one point in the title race. The Reds are putting up an xGDiff of 1.74 per 90 minutes against clubs outside the top six, plus they're averaging 2.52 xG per match.

I have 3.64 goals projected for this game, so I love the total clearing three goals via the Asian Totals at +115 odds and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Total Over 3 Goals (+115)

Watford vs. Burnley 

Under the management of Mike Jackson and Ben Mee, Burnley look revitalized, especially on offense. In their three matches in charge, the Clarets have put up 4.1 xG overall. And in their last five games, they're averaging 1.48 xG per match.

What has caused that? Desperation. The relegation battle between Burnley and Everton has caused the former to play more open and take more chances going forward than it normally would, which has created high-event matches.

Burnley games have been averaging 2.81 xG per match in its last nine contests and defensively it has been quite poor, allowing 1.70 xG per match in that span. Much like Norwich, Watford is going to get relegated. It's only a matter of time it happens, but if it wins this match, it will at least give it some sort of hope.

Watford has been incredibly unlucky under Hodgson. Since the 74-year-old took the reins, the Hornets have an -19 actual goal differential, but only a -7.95 xGDiff, per understat.com.

A lot of that positive regression has to come offensively since they’ve scored eight goals off only 13 xG in that run. Defensively, the bad news for Watford in this matchup is it allows the second-most crosses into the penalty area and conceded the fourth-most xG off set pieces, which is how Burnley scores most of its goals. 

With the pressure of relegation on both of these sides, there's no doubt we will see an open contest with a boat load of chances. So, I have 2.63 goals projected, so I like the value on the total going over 2.5 goals at +115 odds.

Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (+115)

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Man United vs. Brentford 

Manchester United looks like it has quit on this season. The Red Devils have no hope for a top-four position after losing to Arsenal last Saturday, so this is a perfect spot for an in-form Brentford side to pick them off. 

Brentford was by far the better side against Tottenham last time out, winning the xG battle by a 1.6-0.6 margin and the common denominator between these sides is both struggle to provide any sort of pressure out of possession.

United was suppose to be a great pressing team under manager Ralph Rangnick, but instead it's 12th in PPDA since he took over. Brentford struggles playing through pressure, so this is once again a great matchup for the club.

*(graphic via infogol.net)

Additionally, the addition of Christian Eriksen has revitalized the Bees' attack, as he has 0.41 xG plus xA rate per 90 minutes since he joined the squad, per fbref.com.

When these two met the first time, it was one of the most unfair results of the season. United earned a 3-1 win at the Brentford Community Stadium, but the host finished ahead on xG by a 2.2-2.0 edge with 13 shots inside United’s penalty area. The Red Devils only had six inside the Bees' penalty area.

Brentford also suffocated United with its pressing in that match, putting up a 35% pressure success rate.

That said, I like Brentford getting +0.5 at +115 odds via the Asian Handicap since I only have Manchester United projected at -103 odds in this match.

Pick: Brentford +0.5 (+115)