Premier League Updated Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Projections: Our EPL Best Bets, Including Leicester City vs. Brentford

The Premier League season is here!

And for the latest campaign, we are going to do something new with our weekly best bets. Analyst BJ Cunningham is back again with his wagers, but fellow handicapper Anthony Dabbundo is joining the party this time around.

The pair, which is part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be taking you through the English top flight each week, delivering their favorite picks. They'll also provide their individual model projections for every EPL match.

If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.

Cunningham's Model Projections

Dabbundo's Model Projections

Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal

Dabbundo: A stellar preseason campaign has all of the hype building around Arsenal for the upcoming season, plus I’m generally pretty high on the club myself in the medium to long term. However, a road trip to Selhurst Park is one of the more difficult fixtures and I can’t get my numbers close to Arsenal being an odds-on favorite.

Crystal Palace was one of the league's most underrated teams last season. The Gunners still had its chance-creation issues (the club was bottom 10 in average shot distance) and the Eagles were a top-six defense by expected goals allowed.

Palace is one of the biggest positive regression candidates from last campaign, given it finished with 48 actual points and 58.15 xP, per Understat.

Even with Gabriel Jesus joining Arsenal and a subsequent boost in its power ratings, I make the visiting side a +140 moneyline favorite. Palace was also fifth in xGDiff at home last season at +0.54 per 90 minutes. Only Liverpool and Manchester City conceded fewer expected goals on home soil.

That said, I’d play Crystal Palace getting +0.5 goals on the spread line via the Asian Handicap at -125 odds or better.

Dabbundo's Pick: Crystal Palace +0.5 (+105)

Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa

Cunningham: I'm not as down on Bournemouth as most people are, due to the fact its defense was actually pretty good in the Championship last season. The Cherries only allowed 0.99 xG per match, as well as the second fewest shots per 90 minutes and fewest goals from open play.

Behind only Fulham, Bournemouth had the most 10-plus pass sequences and sequence time, so I am sure manager Scott Parker is going to have the club set up defensively and to build out from the back. That's good when facing Aston Villa because it's not a strong pressing team. 

*(Graphic courtesy of Opta)

Under manager Steven Gerrard last season, Aston Villa finished 14th in PPDA and 13th in high turnovers. However, the Villans were a good defensive team, as only conceding 1.18 NPxG per contest.

So, for Bournemouth, which made moves to improve its attack, I highly doubt it's going to create at least one xG here. Plus, in 16 of its 27 matches under Gerrard last season, either team failed to create at least one xG in the process.

I have the Both Teams To Score (No) line projected at -131, so I like the value we're getting on the current number of -105 and would play it up to -114 odds. 

Cunningham's Pick: Both Teams to Score — No (+100)

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Leeds vs. Wolves

Dabbundo: The biggest issue Leeds had last season was a lack of health across the entire squad. That could become an problem again later in the season, but it's not the case heading into this match against Wolverhampton.

Wolves will be without Raúl Jiménez, while Leeds gets striker Patrick Bamford back in the side. The Peacocks struggled to play through pressure toward the end of the season under manager Jesse Marsch, but Wolverhampton isn't a side who’s going to push up the pitch and disrupt their passing patterns. 

Bamford scored 17 goals two seasons ago and his absence for almost all of last campaign is a major reason why Leeds struggled to create chances.

His return should bolster the attack, as should new signings Brendon Aaronson and Luis Sinisterra. The Peacocks finished well below their xG at both ends of the pitch. Now, they face a foe that ran well on variance due to an incredible, yet not repeatable, shot-stopping season from goalkeeper Jose Sá. 

This extreme creates a perception Wolves are the better team, but I'm not at all convinced of that as the season begins. I'm backing Leeds at +120 or better in the opener at Elland Road.

Dabbundo's Pick: Leeds ML (+130)

Leicester vs Brentford

Cunningham: The Foxes are a big-time negative regression candidate. Last season, they over-performed pretty drastically with 52 points and +3 actual goal differential. However, their xGDiff was -10.1 and xP sat at 42.31, per understat.com.

The Leicester City defense was one of the worst in the Premier League, where it conceded 61 xG and was bottom five in shots allowed per 90 minutes, big scoring chances conceded and box entries yielded, per fbref.com.

On the other side, Brentford finished with 56 xP and 46 actual points. The Bees had a -8 actual goal differential and -1.3 xGDiff overall. They were the most efficient team in terms of the quality of chances created, plus led the EPL with a 0.34 xG per shot from open play and top five in xG per set piece, per Opta.

Needless to say, that's massive when facing the Foxes, who had the worst set-piece defense in the league when it conceded 19 goals and 19.97 xG off them.

Brentford lost to Leicester City twice last season, but cumulative xG was essentially even with the Bees at 2.6 and the Foxes at 2.8 in those games.  

I have Leicester projected at +146 moneyline odds, so I love the value on Brentford getting +0.5 goals on the spread line via the Asian Handicap at -114 and would play it up to -127 odds.

Cunningham's Pick: Brentford +0.5 (-114)