We are two weeks into the Premier League season, with already a ton of drama taking place.
Manchester United is at the bottom of the table, Liverpool has drawn back-to-back matches and Arsenal is flying high with its perfect 2-0 start.
BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through another round of games with their best bets on the slate.
The pair, which is part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be taking you through the English top flight each week, delivering their favorite picks. They'll also provide their individual model projections for every EPL match.
If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.
Cunningham's Model Projections
Dabbundo's Model Projections
Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa
| Crystal Palace Odds | +150 |
| Aston Villa Odds | +185 |
| Draw | +225 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+100 / -140) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Cunningham: It has been a tough schedule out of the gates for Crystal Palace after it faced Arsenal and Liverpool, but only having a -0.3 xGDiff through those two matches is actually quite impressive.
Why the Eagles will consistently show value in the market is because of their ability to profile well as both favorites and underdogs.
Against non-big six clubs last season, Crystal Palace averaged 1.30 xG per match and only allowed 0.94 xG per game. The Eagles were also a top-eight pressing team by PPDA, High Turnovers and pressure success rate.
The skill and pass by Eze 😳
The finish by Zaha ⚡️Another class Palace counter-attack.#CPFC | #LIVCRYpic.twitter.com/UOensJpRqH
— Crystal Palace F.C. (@CPFC) August 15, 2022
That’s big facing a team like Aston Villa, which was 17th in Offensive PPDA and didn’t face good pressing teams in Bournemouth and Everton. So, this is going to be a different animal.
Offensively, Aston Villa just isn’t that good. With only 1.18 xG per match under manager Steven Gerrard, the Villans only had 20 big scoring chances in 29 matches. Now, they’re going up against the defense that allowed the third-fewest big scoring chances a season ago.
Crystal Palace’s home record was incredible last season, putting up a +10.2 xGDiff, while Aston Villa was -4.8 on the road.
I have Crystal Palace projected at +130 on the moneyline, so I like the value on it via a Draw No Bet wager at -124 odds.
Cunningham's Pick: Crystal Palace — Draw No Bet (-124)
Fulham vs. Brentford
| Fulham Odds | +135 |
| Brentford Odds | +195 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-115 / -120) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Cunningham: This match could turn into a snoozer.
What we’ve learned from manager Marco Silva and Fulham is that it’s going to be just fine without having the amount of possession it was used to in the Championship.
The Cottagers averaged the second lowest amount of possession through their first two matches, but have an even xGDiff, which is impressive considering they hosted Liverpool and played Wolves on the road.
Defensively against Wolverhampton, Fulham held its foe to seven shots, 13 touches in the penalty area and only 0.7 xG in the process.
Brentford will struggle against teams that can press it successfully, ranking 18th in pressure success rate allowed and 19th in ball recoveries conceded. However, that doesn’t mean the Bees are going to be able to play right through the Cottagers or be able to dominate possession.
Brentford was 14th in average possession and 15th in average sequence time.
Listen, as much as I love the visitors, last season it wasn’t an offensive juggernaut. The Bees were 10th in xG, 13th in shots per 90 minutes and eighth in big scoring chances in the English top flight.
Since I have the Both Teams To Score (No) line projected at -125, I love the value on the current line of +115 odds.
Cunningham's Pick: Both Teams to Score — No (+115)
Leeds vs. Chelsea
| Leeds Odds | +450 |
| Chelsea Odds | -175 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-145 / +105) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network | fuboTV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Dabbundo: Chelsea closed -at 160 odds on opening day at Everton. And two weeks later, the Blues are even bigger road favorites against better Leeds side.
As much as Chelsea controlled possession for large stretches in its home match against Tottenham, the club continued to have issues turning final-third possession into shots, scoring chances and goals.
Two of Chelsea’s three goals have come from a penalty and corner kick, plus Leeds is due for a bunch of positive regression in the set-piece department after a horrendously bad year defending them under ex-manager Marcelo Bielsa.
The Blues only created 1.5 xG in the spring meeting between these sides, which was after the Peacocks had a red card in the 20th minute and played down a man the rest of the match.
Leeds has shown a strong ability to defend without the ball so far, as it had less than 50% of the possession in both matches yet held Wolves and Southampton to just one xG in the process.
While I do expect Chelsea to control things, the absence of N’Golo Kanté and Mateo Kovacic make it considerably weaker in defensive transition and lessen its ability to dominate the match.
Leeds should be able to find quick strike vertical passes to take advantage of Chelsea’s midfield weakness, plus I only make it a 0.70-goal home underdog.
Dabbundo's Pick: Leeds +1 (-110)
West Ham vs. Brighton Odds
| West Ham Odds | +125 |
| Brighton Odds | +210 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-110 / -125) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Dabbundo: West Ham United was quite unfortunate to lose 1-0 to Nottingham Forest after creating more than two xG, but I’m selling the club yet again as a home favorite against Brighton & Hove Albion.
The Hammers come in on short rest following Thursday’s Europa Conference League qualifying match. They remain short-handed at center back due to some injury issues. Plus, this is a matchup of one of the biggest positive/negative regression candidates from the 2021-22 season.
West Ham rode its hot finishing streak last season to a seventh-place effort, but as the finishing regresses, the underlying numbers suggest the side is just an average in attack and relies heavily on transition opportunities to create chances.
On the other side, Brighton boasts one of the best EPL defenses at preventing big scoring chances and improved in defensive transition at the end of last season.
The Seagulls dominated this fixture at the end of the campaign and nothing has changed since to make me think the hosts are the better side.
Given I have this lined as basically a Pick’em meeting, I will back Brighton getting +0.25 goals at -120 odds or better via the Asian Handicap as my top pick.
There are some troubling indicators for West Ham’s ability to consistently progress the ball into the opponents’ penalty area. And the reliance on set pieces won’t pay off as much against a well-organized Brighton side.
Dabbundo's Pick: Brighton +0.25 (-110)
