Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Projections: Our Midweek EPL Best Bets, Featuring Chelsea vs. Arsenal (April 19-21)

With the Premier League in the final stretch run, there's everything to play for when it comes to the title race, top-four and top-six positions and the exciting relegation battle. This week, we have an unprecedented midweek slate with a ton at stake.

It starts off Tuesday at Anfield, with Liverpool hosting Manchester United in a match that could end up deciding the championship and top-six clubs. On Wednesday, we have a North London derby when Chelsea hosts Arsenal.

On Thursday, Burnley welcomes Southampton to Turf Moor, as it attempts to make a great escape from the relegation zone under an interim manager — and club captain — Ben Mee.

If you'd like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here. You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Premier League Projections

Best Bets

Liverpool vs. Man United

Against Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool this season, Manchester United has been outscored by a 12-2 combined total and lost the expected-goals battle by an 11.3-3.3 margin. So, it hasn't been competitive whatsoever.

The Red Devils have fallen into the same trap in every single one of those matches where they sit incredibly deep, don’t provide any pressure and just hope they can get a counterattacking opportunity for Cristiano Ronaldo or Jadon Sancho. The one way to beat Liverpool is you have to press it back if you want any hope of not getting smothered by its own high press.

The highest amount of possession United held against the top three sides was 37% against Liverpool in the first meeting, where they got drilled in a 5-0 rout.

Even this past weekend, the Red Devils went up 2-0 on Norwich City and allowed the worst team in the EPL to level things up at 2-2 at Old Trafford before Ronaldo saved them again. The xG total was just 2.1 -1.9 in favor of United, so this is a team going to Anfield and will be competitive? 

In contrast, Liverpool has won ten consecutive matches at home in the English top flight and has a +24.3 xGDiff in those contests. I understand this is the Reds' sixth match in 17 days, but I really don't see how they don’t blow out their latest opponents.

Also, David De Gea has been absolutely saving United all season, putting up an impressive +9.6 post-shot xG +/- (per fbref.com), which leads the league. So, without De Gea, the club be would 17th in xGA per match (1.67) this season.

I have Liverpool’s spread projected at -1.81, so I love the value we're getting on the favorite giving -1.5 goals at +108 odds via the alternate spread and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Liverpool -1.5 (+108)

Chelsea vs. Arsenal

This is an awfully cheap price on Chelsea. Yes, the Blues have third place all but wrapped up, but they've been in unbelievable form over the past few weeks. Chelsea crushed Southampton in a 6-0 blowout; defeated Real Madrid, 3-2, in Spain; and, took down a good Crystal Palace side in a 2-0 win in FA Cup action.

I understand the Blues have lost back-to-back home matches against Brentford and Real Madrid, but before that they won six consecutive games at Stamford Bridge and have a +12.2 xGDiff at home in the EPL this season. 

Arsenal has had a dip in results; not in form. The Gunners have lost three matches in a row, scoring only once and allowing six goals in the process. However, Arsenal has actually won the xG battle by a combined 4.5-2.7 in those games. So, the club is due for positive regression. I'm not sure this is the spot for it, though, especially Kieran Tierney and Thomas Partey absent. 

These sides met in the third week of the season, generating a dominant Chelsea performance at Emirates Stadium in a 2-0 victory, but Arsenal was dealing with some injuries and COVID-19 issues. That being said, managers Mikel Arteta and Thomas Tuchel have met twice and the Blues have won the xG competition by a combined 5.0-0.9 margin. Additionally, Arsenal has been poor away from home, putting together a subpar -3.2 xGDiff this season. 

I have Chelsea projected at -147, so I like the value we're getting on the host side to grab all three points at -112 odds.

Pick: Chelsea ML (-112)

Burnley vs. Southampton

For the time being, Burnley isn't going to change its style of play even though former manager Sean Dyche has been sacked. That's mainly because this group of players doesn't know how to play any other way together and longtime captain Ben Mee is the interim manager.

However, that doesn’t mean the Clarets' matches aren’t going to be high scoring. I mean Sunday’s match against West Ham United featured 4.36 xG and four big scoring chances.

Even though these teams mainly set up out of 4-4-2 formations, I hardly imagine this game is going to be anything but end to end with chances galore. This is the second year in a row where Southampton has completely fallen off a cliff over the second half when it's comfortably in the middle of the table.

Since Jan. 15, the Saints' defense is allowing 1.65 xG per match, which is 17th in the Premier League over that time frame. However, the Clarets haven't been much better defensively during that span, allowing 1.61 xG per outing.

That said, this  is a bad matchup for Southampton because not only is it last in big scoring chances allowed, but it's also 14th in crosses conceded in its own penalty area and Burnley is top 10 at playing through pressure.

I have 2.67 goals projected for this contest, so I like the value on the total clearing 2.5 goals at +105 and will make it my top selection in this match.

Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (+105)

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