Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Previews: Our 4 Best Bets, Featuring Arsenal vs. Brentford

After a chaotic weekend of upsets, the Premier League returns with a fantastic slate of matches.

BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.

Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the weekend Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way. They'll also provide their individual model projections for the games.

If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.

Cunningham's Model Projections

Dabbundo's Model Projections

West Ham vs. Chelsea

Cunningham: Chelsea at their current state should not be a favorite on the road against an underrated team like West Ham. 

The Hammers put in a fantastic performance against Newcastle the last time they were out and deserved the 1-1 draw. They should be able to keep this Chelsea offense at bay because David Moyes’ side is still playing a very compact and effective low block.

West Ham are fourth in npxG, allowing only 1 per 90 minutes, and they’re doing it while providing very little residence, as they’re 19th in PPDA, 18th in high turnovers and 16th in final third entries allowed.

Maybe the most important stat is they are fourth in final third to box entry conversion rate. Only 26.7% of the time when opponents enter the final third do they get into the penalty box against West Ham. On the flip side, Chelsea are 15th in that same category offensively. 

The Chelsea defense is still having problems, as the Blues are 13th in npxG allowed, and since we’ve come back from the World Cup break they’ve allowed over 1 xG in three of their six matches.

Chelsea are also in a lookahead spot with their Champions League match against Dortmund during the week. 

I actually have the Hammers projected as slight favorites, so I like the value on them +0.5 at -141.

Pick: West Ham +0.5 (-141)

Arsenal vs. Brentford

Dabbundo: In theory this is a natural bounce back spot for the Gunners after their road defeat at Everton last weekend, but it’s also tricky for them with Manchester City next up on the Premier League schedule in the midweek. Brentford have been consistently undervalued in the betting markets all season and that remains true on Saturday as they visit Arsenal.  

Arsenal won the reverse fixture 3-0 at Brentford but the final box score looked considerably more competitive than that. The Bees lost xG by about a goal and Arsenal just had excellent finishing of their half chances in the opening 45 minutes. That one result shouldn’t take away from the level of success Thomas Frank’s side has had when going up in competition. 

The Bees have drawn Spurs and Chelsea, beaten Liverpool and Manchester City and crushed Manchester United. The market didn’t adjust at all to downgrade Arsenal off of their shaky performance at Everton. While that was a difficult spot on the road with Everton’s new manager, the Toffees showed a blueprint of defensive organization and an energized out of possession press that can disrupt Arsenal’s possession structures.

Brentford are sure to try to replicate that by clogging up the half spaces that Martin Odegaard likes to operate in and forcing all of Arsenal’s attacks to the flank. The Bees excel on set pieces, don’t concede big scoring chances and will make life difficult for the Gunners in this match. 

My projected spread is much closer to Arsenal -1, and the Gunners' defense has quietly conceded at least 1 xG in five of six league matches. They’re unlikely to maintain their league-winning form in the second half as regression looms. 

Picks: Brentford +1.5 (play to -140) | Brentford team total over 0.5 (play to -140)

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Leeds United vs. Manchester United

Dabbundo: Manchester United came from two goals down at home to get a draw with Leeds United on Wednesday and the Red Devils remain overvalued on the road at Elland Road in Sunday’s rematch.

The Peacocks did an excellent job of disrupting United’s possession structure, which is significantly more vulnerable with Casemiro suspended and out of the lineup. There’s also a real lack of depth with the injuries to Christian Eriksen and Scott McTominay. The midfield duo of Marcel Sabitzer and Fred is fine but it hurts United’s ability to dominate games and break up transitions. 

That was evident on Leeds’ first goal, when the Peacocks scored in the opening minute less than 10 seconds after turning United over in the middle of the park. Leeds have been a good buy low for weeks, even though the positive regression hasn’t quite come for them in the finishing department.

The Peacocks' much maligned defense is top-seven in box entries allowed, third in ball recoveries and just 12th in big scoring chances allowed. It’s a better unit than the goals allowed and even xGA would suggest.

Manchester United were overvalued as a -210 moneyline favorite at home. My projections only make them +117 to win this match on Sunday and thus I like Leeds +0.5 at -110 or better. 

Pick: Leeds +0.5 (-110) 

Liverpool vs. Everton 

Cunningham: Everton did a fantastic job against Arsenal staying compact and taking away Arsenal’s ability to build up through the middle of the pitch.

Typically, Arsenal will invert Zinchenko alongside Partey, which allows Xhaka to push up alongside Odegaard to create a square in the middle of the pitch. Everton went with a 4-5-1 out of possession and closed off the space in between the lines, which made life very difficult on Arsenal. The Gunners had 22 box entries, but were only able to create 0.9 xG, which just shows how good of a job Everton did at defending their penalty area.

The Liverpool defense has been terrible all season and has shown no sign of improving. Since we came back from the World Cup, Liverpool have allowed 9.6 xG in six matches.

Yes, Sean Dyche is at the helm and Everton will have a defensive approach, but Everton created 1.7 xG against the best defense in the Premier League and Everton are a top-five team in terms of xG per set piece, while Liverpool are dead last at defending set pieces.

I have Everton projected for 1.03 goals, so I love the value on them to score against this terrible defense at -137.

Pick: Everton team total over 0.5 (-137)