Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Previews: Our 4 Best Bets, Featuring Newcastle vs. West Ham

After a break for the FA Cup, the Premier League returns for a fantastic weekend slate.

BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.

Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the weekend Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way. They'll also provide their individual model projections for the games.

If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.

Cunningham's Model Projections

Dabbundo's Model Projections

Chelsea vs. Fulham

Cunningham: After all of the moves at the deadline, Chelsea’s attack has to improve going forward. They were much better against Liverpool in their last Premier League match, as they were able to create 1.6 xG.

The Fulham defense is going to regress at some point this season and they can’t continue to keep getting away with allowing this many high quality chances. Since the World Cup break, Fulham have allowed four goals off of 8.2 xG and has conceded six big scoring chances as well. Fulham are the worst defense in the Premier League, allowing 1.69 xG per 90 minutes.

Chelsea let Fulham play into wide areas last time out because the Blues were still without Reece James and Ben Chilwell (that remains the case). Fulham were able to complete five passes into the penalty area – five of them were via crosses, which is what Fulham does best – and it’s how they scored the second goal.

The Chelsea defense has had issues all season long and in the short term and I am not so sure they’re going to be fixed by this match.

I have BTTS projected at -122, so I like the current price of +100 at BetRivers.

Pick: Both Teams to Score (+100 via BetRivers)

Newcastle vs. West Ham

Dabbundo:Newcastle booked their first trip to Wembley since 1999 on Tuesday with a 2-1 win against Southampton at home. Now sitting comfortably in the top four, the Magpies are in a natural let down spot this weekend at home against a desperate and underrated West Ham side.

They will be without both Bruno Guimaraes and Alexander Isak due to suspension and injury, which takes away the best midfield and striker for the side.

About a month ago, Arsenal were laying a goal at home against West Ham. Now, Newcastle are. As good as the Magpies have been, they’ve shown some signs of regression in recent weeks. Newcastle settled for a goalless draw with Crystal Palace after the Eagles sat deep and forced them to break down a low block. Like Palace, West Ham are quite passive and sit deep out of possession.

The Hammers are in the relegation battle based on their number of points, but West Ham remain elite defensively. David Moyes’ side is fourth in xG allowed in the entire league and has positive regression coming for its attack.They’re also capable of playing through pressure with their eighth ranking in opponent passes per defensive action.

This is a good sell-high spot on Newcastle as an inflated home favorite. 

Pick: West Ham +1 (-130 via BetRivers)

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Nottingham Forest vs. Leeds

Cunningham: This is not the best of spots for Nottingham Forest. Yes, they have played much better at home than they have on the road, but injuries are starting to take their toll. They are set to be without Taiwo Awoniyi, Morgan Gibbs-White, Ryan Yates and Dean Henderson for this match.

Awoniyi, Morgan Gibbs-White and Ryan Yates are three of Nottingham Forest’s top four players in shots per 90 minutes, while Gibbs-White and Yates are both top five on the team in progressive passes & dribbles. Most importantlym Awoniyi and Gibbs-White are two of only three players for Nottingham Forest with an xG + xA per 90 minute rate above 0.30.

Leeds have been improving since the World Cup break. If you take away their three matches against Manchester City, Tottenham and Newcastle, they actually have a +1.5 xGD against West Ham, Aston Villa and Brentford.

This is also a great matchup for them because Nottingham Forest are 17th in offensive PPDA and dead last in progressive passes + dribbles per 90 minutes.

The Leeds offense has been quite good recently and it's also starting to get healthy. Nottingham Forest have conceded the third-most big scoring chances and are allowing the most touches in the penalty area per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season.

So, I like Leeds draw no bet at -106.

Pick: Leeds Draw No Bet (-106 via FanDuel)

Tottenham vs. Manchester City

Dabbundo: These two sides just met on Jan. 19 in Manchester in a six-goal thriller. I bet the under in that match and lost but the rematch sets up even better for an under with Spurs at home and Manchester City’s continued decline in attacking production.

I’m going back to the under at -125 or better as Spurs' attack remains inconsistent. They produced less than 1 xG against one of the worst defenses in the league against Fulham last league match. They hadn’t produced much of anything in Manchester until Ederson’s poor pass from the back gifted Spurs their biggest chance of the match.

Prior to going down a quick 2-0 on two flukes before halftime, Manchester City weren't creating much of anything or threatening Spurs’ back line. City produced 0.44 xG in the first half of the match. They turned it on after halftime at home once down 2-0 and rallied, but the attack is still not as good as the market is suggesting here.

Tottenham are still very good at defending within their penalty area and don't concede many big scoring chances. City have declined from last season’s nearly 2.5 xG per match to just over 2 xG per 90 this year. Now on the road, it should be more difficult to break down Spurs.

And unlike years past when Spurs had the elite transitions to bother City, that just hasn’t been the case this season.

Pick: Under 3 (-124 via BetRivers)