Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Previews: Our 4 Best Bets, Featuring Tottenham vs. Chelsea

The title has now shifted back in Arsenal's favor after they secured a late match winner against Aston Villa, while Manchester City conceded in the dying moments at Nottingham Forest. That sets up yet another fantastic Premier League slate that features a London Derby between Tottenham and Chelsea, while both Arsenal and Manchester City are on the road again.

BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.

Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the weekend Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way. They'll also provide their individual model projections for the games.

If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.

Cunningham's Model Projections

Dabbundo's Model Projections

Everton vs. Aston Villa

Dabbundo: Everton has played two home matches during Sean Dyche’s tenure and the signs of improvement are immediately evident. They handled both Arsenal and Leeds at Goodison Park with an effective defensive shape that takes away wide areas and actually pressed the opponents into mistakes in possession that disrupted build-up. Since coming in, Unai Emery has tried to get Aston Villa to play out from the back with little success. They don’t have the on-ball quality in their defensive lines to get away with it and the mistakes have led to chances for the opposition. 

Villa’s defense has gotten worse in expected goals allowed and they just conceded three expected goals to both Manchester City and Arsenal. Everton is nowhere near that level of course, but the Toffees do have a decided edge on set pieces. The Toffees rank inside the top five in xG per set piece, which has been a major flaw of the Villa defense for the entire season.

There’s more positive attacking regression coming for Everton in terms of finishing when you consider they’ve scored just 17 goals despite producing 24 xG. Everton may be in the relegation battle as a whole, but their xG difference at home this year is right around league average. 

Villa is the slightly better team in my numbers after applying an upgrade to Everton for Dyche, but the Toffees should be more of a favorite at home than they currently are. I’d bet Everton at -125 or better on the draw no bet line as the more likely winner in this match on Saturday. 

Pick: Everton Draw no Bet (-124) (FanDuel)

Leicester vs. Arsenal 

Cunningham: The price here is too short on Arsenal. This isn’t a bad spot like the Aston Villa match and they are essentially the exact same price on the moneyline. 

Arsenal pummeled Aston Villa. The final score line and Jorginho scoring in stoppage time will say it was close, but Arsenal controlled 67% possession, out shot Aston Villa 20 to 7, and out touched them in penalty box 44 to 10 on the road. 

Leicester got annihilated by Manchester United in a good spot for the Foxes on Sunday. They conceded a whopping 4.1 expected goals, four big scoring chances and had 19 of their 25 shots come from inside the penalty area. After that dismal performance, Leicester is now last in the Premier League in npxG allowed (1.64) per 90 minutes. The Foxes have also been overperforming offensively lately as they've scored 10 goals off of 6.4 expected in their past four matches.

Leicester is a very good team at controlling possession. They want to build out of the back through Tielemens and Maddison. They aren’t the best team when they have to sit in a low block and defend for a majority of the match, which was evident against Manchester United. Usually, Leicester plays a 4-4-2 out of possession and will press high, which is a dangerous game to play against Arsenal. 

The problems that exist for Leicester's offense come in the final third. The Foxes are good at getting the ball into the final third, but once it’s there, they don’t have a clinical finisher and aren’t able to generated good quality chances. Leicester is eighth in final third entries, but they are 17th in final third to box entry conversion rate.

That is why you see Leicester leading the Premier League with 10 goals from outside the box. Leicester is also second to last in the Premier League in xG per set piece, which is bad news because Arsenal’s set piece defense is where they are weakest. 

Leicester can be dangerous in transition with the talent they have on the ball, but Arsenal is the best transition defense in the Premier League and will be getting Thomas Partey back in the lineup, which is great news for Arsenal. 

Leicester are also 18th in the Premier League in xG allowed per set piece, while Arsenal are the most efficient team in the Premier League at defending set pieces. 

The last time these two faced off, albeit it was in August, Arsenal destroyed Leicester 4-2, created over 2.5 expected goals, tilted the field on them at 74.2% and 15 shots inside the penalty area. Arsenal’s attack should have no problem progressing the ball up the pitch and getting into Leicester’s penalty area with ease. 

I have the Gunners projected at -155, so I like the value on them at -136.

Pick: Arsenal -136 (BetRivers)

West Ham vs. Nottingham Forest

Cunningham: West Ham are somehow in the relegation zone with a +2.3 xGD. The Hammers have also been playing a difficult schedule as of late having to play Newcastle, Chelsea and Tottenham in their past three matches. If we look at the two matches before that — against Wolves and Everton — they did a fantastic job defensively, only allowing those two to create a combined 1.4 expected goals. 

I have major question marks about Nottingham Forest’s ability to create high quality chances in this match.

First off, the Nottingham Forest offense is thriving purely off counter attacks and big scoring chances. The Trees are 10th in big scoring chances and 15th in npxG per 90 minutes. However, they are last in the Premier League in both final third and penalty box entries.

They are still without Taiwo Awoniyi, which means it’s going to be more Chris Wood up top. He is great long ball option, but in nine full 90s between Forest and Newcastle, he’s only a 0.36 xG per minute striker this season.

Additionally, the Nottingham Forest offense has been dreadful on the road, scoring just three goals against Bournemouth, Everton and Southampton. 

West Ham has struggled offensively because they can’t turn final third possessions into a high quality chances. The Hammers are last in final third to penalty box entry conversion rate, while Nottingham Forest, even though they are allowing a lot of final third entries, are eighth in that same category defensively.

I love BTTS-No at -120, as I have this line projected at -163.

Pick: Both Teams to Score- No (-120)

Tottenham vs. Chelsea

Dabbundo: This is an excellent sell-high and buy-low opportunity. The Blues have scored just one goal in their past five matches despite producing eight expected goals. The narrative surrounding the Blues is they can’t score goals and that Graham Potter is on the hot seat, but the field tilt numbers are encouraging, as are the shot differentials, expected goals and expected threat numbers. Improved results are coming if Chelsea continues to put in this level of performance.

Spurs are almost the opposite. They’ve won three of four in the Premier League, but the underlying performances have been pretty average. They defend their penalty area well, but Fraser Forster is a downgrade from Hugo Lloris in goal, they make a ton of errors in possession that lead to chances for the opponent and the attack isn’t nearly as potent from open play.

Spurs have the best set piece numbers in the league at both ends of the pitch, but this is an average team from open play and Chelsea will have significant midfield advantages and be able to press Spurs into mistakes in possession. 

From a projections standpoint, this number is about right for me with Spurs around a tossup at home. But the spot and matchup favors the Blues and I’m willing to bet them on the draw no bet line at -110 or better. The goals and results will come for Chelsea if they continue creating chances like they have been.

Pick: Chelsea Draw no Bet (+106) (FanDuel)