Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Preview: Our Favorite Bets, Including Crystal Palace & Everton

The Premier League title race is starting to heat up with Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool holding serve in their respective midweek matches.

This weekend's fixtures are headlined by a top-four battle between West Ham and Chelsea, along with a very interesting matchup with Bruno Lage's Wolves hosting manager Jürgen Klopp and Liverpool.

If you're new to our soccer coverage, I will be providing my projections for every Premier League match, along with every other game from Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga and Ligue 1, plus Champions League and Europa League when they’re in action.

If you'd like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here.

You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Premier League Projections

Best Bets

Wolves vs. Liverpool

Wolves are the type of team that can give Liverpool a lot of trouble. If you’re going to beat or challenge Liverpool you first have to have a good defensive structure that won’t allow Mohamed Salah and Sadie Mane a lot of open spaces.

Wolves checks that box, considering they’re allowing only 1.02 expected goals per 90 minutes out of Bruno Lage’s 3-4-3 formation, per understat.com. 

Wolves is a very interesting team in the fact they don’t press high. Yet, once a team crosses the halfway line, they hunt in packs and are cohesive in their pressing. That makes it very difficult for opponents to play through them because they have the second-best pressure success rate in the Premier League.

If Liverpool does have one offensive weakness, it’s that they’re not very good against teams that press them, as they’re 13th in pressure success rate allowed. 

Now, the Reds consistently play a lot of long balls into Salah and Mane from their center backs since they’re first touch is so good. However, Wolves have been outstanding at preventing passes and dribbling into their own penalty area, as they only allow 11.85 box entries per 90 minutes, which is the eighth best in the league, per fbref.com. 

Finally, Wolves doesn’t create a lot of chances, as they’re 17th in shots per 90 minutes, but when they do, they’re high quality because they have the fourth-most big scoring chances this season. Liverpool has been somewhat susceptible to allowing those big scoring chances, as they’ve already conceded 13 during their campaign. 

I only have Liverpool's spread projected at -0.90, so I love Wolves getting +1.5 goals at -145 odds and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Wolves +1.5 (-145)

Man United vs. Crystal Palace

It was easy for former Manchester United caretaker manager Michael Carrick to set up very defensive against Chelsea, knowing they would have a large share of the possession and be the aggressors.

Well, now what are the Red Devils going to do against a Crystal Palace side that loves to sit deep and hit teams on the counter? Crystal Palace is really good defensively as well, as they’re third in NPxG allowed and second in big scoring chances conceded.

Crystal Palace has the second-most pressures this season, with a majority of them coming in their own final third of the pitch. Manchester United is allowing the sixth-highest pressure success rate and has been one of the worst EPL teams in defensive transition.

So, Crystal Palace will be able hit United on the counter since they have no shape or structure right now, which has caused them to allow 1.80 expected goals per match. 

I only have Manchester United projected at -133 odds, so I’m finding plenty of value on Crystal Palace getting a full goal at -110 odds at DraftKings and will make it my top selection.

Pick: Crystal Palace +1 (-110)

Everton vs. Arsenal

I know Everton has a ton of injury concerns, plus they’re in the worst form of any team in the English top flight, but this line is a little crazy. Arsenal is not deserving of being +115 favorites on the road against an Everton side that only has a -2.32 xGDiff on the season.

Arsenal isn’t going to be able to exploit Everton like Liverpool was able to do so because they don’t press at all. Arsenal is dead last in PPDA and second to last in total pressures. Also, the Gunners have been horrible on the defensive side, even though a lot of the issues came against Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool by allowing 1.69 NPxG per match. 

Offensively, things haven’t been that bad for Everton minus star Dominic Calvert-Lewin. The Toffees are 10th in NPxG, fifth in box entires and — most importantly — second in crosses completed into the penalty area, while Arsenal is yielding the third-most crosses into the box, per fbref.com. 

Everton’s defensive troubles have mainly come because they’re allowing way too many big scoring chances, ranking 19th in the league. Offensively, Arsenal is only 11th in big scoring chances created. 

I have this game projected closer to a Pick’em, so I like the Toffees getting +0.5 at -125 odds on DraftKings in this matchup.

Pick: Everton +0.5 (-125)