Premier League Betting Picks, Predictions, Preview: Projections & Best Bets, Including Burnley vs. Spurs (Nov. 27-28)

The Premier League title race is starting to heat up with Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool holding serve in last week's matches.

However, the biggest story from this past weekend in the English top flight was Watford's 4-1 win at Vicarage Road over Manchester United, which ended up being the final match of the Ole Gunnar Solskjær era as he was sacked after the defeat.

This weekend's fixtures are headlined by a very interesting contest between Chelsea and Manchester United, along with a top-four battle pitting David Moyes' West Ham United versus Pep Guardiola's Manchester City.

If you're new to our soccer coverage, I will be providing my projections for every Premier League match, along with every other game from Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga and Ligue 1, plus Champions League and Europa League when they’re in action.

If you'd like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here.

You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Premier League Projections

Best Bets

Norwich City vs. Wolves

I know Norwich City has won two in a row via victories against Brentford and Southampton, but this team is still so bad. In those two matches, the Canaries lost the expected-goals battle by a combined 3.4-1.9 margin and is still one of the worst defensive teams in the Premier League.

Norwich is still in the bottom three in shots allowed per 90 minutes, big scoring chances conceded, box entries and NPxG, where they’re allowing 1.78 per match, per fbref.com.

So, how are they going to stop a Wolves offense that's really deadly in transition, good versus pressure and good at creating big scoring chances, as they already have 19 this season.

Manager Dean Smith obviously was able to turn around the Aston Villa squad that was one of the worst defensive teams in the league before the pandemic into a decent group in the back, but the point is that it took time and it’s going to take him some more patience to get Norwich to level of being a respectable EPL defense.

However, not only does Smith have problems on defense, Norwich is the worst offensive team in the league as well. The Canaries are last in NPxG, shots per 90 and box entries. Maybe the most shocking stat though is that Norwich has created three big scoring chances this season. That's it.

Now, they’re facing a Wolves defense that's second in the league in big scoring chances allowed and fourth in shots allowed per 90 minutes. 

That said, I think this line is an overreaction to Norwich City winning two games in a row. I have Wolves projected at -109, so I think there's some value on them at +115 odds via DraftKings and will make it my top selection.

Pick: Wolves ML (+115)

Brighton vs. Leeds

Historically, Brighton & Hove Albion under manager Graham Potter has been a fantastic matchup against Marcelo Bielsa because of how good the Seagulls are against pressure and their build-up play.

It’s no surprise Leeds is first in the Premier League in PPDA and total pressures, but facing a team like Brighton that's third in Offensive PPDA, pressure success rate allowed and ball recoveries is not good for them. 

Now, Brighton is nowhere near the level they were at offensively last season. They’re only averaging 0.94 NPxG per match, but face a Leeds defense that just allowed 2.24 xG to Tottenham and overall for the season is allowing 1.62 xG per game. So, Brighton will be afforded a lot of open space in behind the defense. Also, Patrick Bamford, Luke Ayling, Robin Koch are still out for Leeds and Rodrigo is questionable. 

The reason Brighton is still in the top half of the table is because their defense is still playing at the level we saw last season. Brighton is seventh in NPxG allowed, sixth in shots allowed per 90 and third in big scoring chances allowed, which is huge considering Leeds is 19th in big scoring chances created. 

Also, Brighton has been really effective with their pressing again this season, fourth in PPDA and pressure success rate, while Leeds is 17th in pressure success rate allowed, per fbref.com. 

I have Brighton projected at -104, so there's a little bit of value on the Seagulls at +105 odds on DraftKings in this home match.

Pick: Brighton ML (+105)

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Burnley vs. Tottenham

Yes, Tottenham got a deserved 2-1 win against Leeds this past Sunday, but looking at the box score, it wasn’t that dominant of a performance. Leeds held 57% possession, outshot Tottenham by a 17-13 margin, held a 27-19 edge in shot-creating actions and also had more box entries than its foes.

So, I don’t think manager Antonio Conte has his team playing at the level we all think they should be playing at. This is also a really difficult spot for Tottenham, because they have a Europa Conference League match against Mura in Slovenia on the horizon. Spurs has to play a lot of their starters there, because they only have a point cushion in their group for second place with only two matches to go.

Now, Burnley hasn’t been able to do anything from open play this season, but they’re still seventh in the league in big scoring chances and first in crosses completed into the penalty area. Tottenham has been decent against set pieces this season — 0.10 xG per set piece and have allowed three goals off corners — but Burnley is third in arial duals won, while Tottenham is in the bottom half of the league in that same category.

The Clarets' defense has been terrible. There is no denying that, as they’re dead last in shot allowed per 90 and box entries allowed. However, Tottenham’s offense… you know they have one that has the best striker in the Premier League. Well, they’re still 16th in NPxG per match, 19th in shots per 90 and 15th in box entries.

Once again, Harry Kane didn’t score. And that means he's only scored one goal in 11 appearances, with a 0.27 xG per 90 scoring rate. Tottenham is also 12th in ball recoveries allowed and Burnley is fourth in ball recoveries, so the Clarets will be able to win the ball in air and middle of the pitch.

Tottenham is overpriced in this spot, especially with Christian Romero sidelined. I only have Spurs projected at +140 odds, so I love Burnley +0.5 at -120 on DraftKings and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Burnley +0.5 (-120)