Premier League Betting Picks, Preview & Predictions: Our 4 Best Bets, Featuring Leeds United vs. Fulham

It's time for more non-stop Premier League action, as the schedule becomes even more congested with the World Cup looming.

BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.

Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the midweek Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way. They'll also provide their individual model projections for the games.

If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.

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Cunningham's Model Projections

Dabbundo's Model Projections

Manchester City vs. Brighton

Dabbundo: Manchester City have largely dominated the Premier League through the first 10 matches with a +16 expected goal (xG) difference and 33 league goals. There’s no denying how lethal City can be when playing at their best, but there’s no guarantee of that on Saturday when Brighton visits the Etihad.

The Cityzens were two-goal favorites at home against Crystal Palace earlier this season and it’s a clear sign that they are a bit inflated in the market now as the same two-goal favorite at home against a better Brighton side. 

City have shown some defensive weakness in the last few matches too. Yes, there was a red card against Copenhagen, but the problems run deeper than that. With Kyle Walker and John Stones out injured, the defense is much more vulnerable to transition attacks.

Walker was always the last line of defense and used his speed to clean up messes over the top. And how did Liverpool score on Sunday at Anfield? Joao Cancelo misplayed a long ball to Mo Salah and all of a sudden, the Reds were in on goal and scored. 

We’ve seen Newcastle, Crystal Palace and Borussia Dortmund all score first against Manchester City this season. They’re the best team in the world, but they are still prone to regression to the mean. Even with Erling Haaland leading the line, the Cityzens will not finish almost 50% over their xG for numbers all season.

Brighton have been excellent under Roberto De Zerbi. They are winless in four matches, but they won the xG against Liverpool at Anfield, played even with Spurs and dominated Nottingham Forest despite not getting the result. The Seagulls are third in the PL in expected points and +0.8 in xG difference per 90 this season, per Understat. 

Brighton aren't two goals worse than any team in the world and I’d bet them at +2 on Saturday.

Pick: Brighton +2 (-115 via BetRivers)

Wolves vs. Leicester

Cunningham: Wolves only created 0.60 xG against Crystal Palace, which means were are now at six straight matches for Wolves without creating a big scoring chance or 1.00 xG from open play.

The only two players on Wolves averaging over 0.20 xG per 90 minutes are Hee Chan-Hwang and Raul Jimenez, who is currently injured. I’ll keep saying it, but Wolves is just incredibly reliant on low-quality chances.

Wolves’ average shot distance is 18.1 yards from the goal and 44% of their shots are coming from outside the box, where an average shot from outside the box has an xG rating of 0.03. Those numbers are second in the Premier League only to their opponent Leicester.

The Foxes' average shot distance is 18.6 yards from the goal and 45% of their shots are coming from outside the box. You even look at their last three matches.

They played Nottingham Forest. Only 1.1 xG. They played Bournemouth. Only 1.2 xG created. They played Crystal Palace. Only 0.9 xG created. Then they played Leeds on Thursday. Only 0.80 xG created. 

The one thing Leicester can do well is play through pressure and progress the ball up the field because they are top seven in both of those categories. Wolves are not going to press them and is going to sit back in a low block, so I  have major question marks about Leicester’s ability to break down a low block. 

I have BTTS-No projected at -131, so I like the price on the current line of +120.

Pick: Both Teams to Score – No (+120 via DraftKings)

Leeds United vs. Fulham

Dabbundo: Leeds had yet another disappointing result on the road at Leicester City on Thursday and I’m going back to the well on them back at home against Fulham.

The Cottagers had an impressive win, 3-0 at home against Aston Villa, that led to manager Steven Gerrard’s firing. That game had as much to do with Villa imploding though as they conceded a penalty, a red card and an own goal all in the second half. There’s still major red flags for Fulham, who sits ninth in the table with a -1 goal difference and a -9 xG difference. 

Fulham have also been awarded four penalties, more than any team in the league, and regression is likely coming there as penalties tend to be random and not reliable or predictive as a source of attacking play and goals. They’ve conceded 10 xGA in five away matches and are now facing a Leeds side due for a ton of positive regression. 

Leeds have been a much tougher side at home since rejoining the Premier League and even though Patrick Bamford is in a finishing slump, you can’t expect that to continue. The Peacocks have produced one goal from the last four matches despite generating chances worth more than five xG. 

The market is suggesting that these two teams are comparable in true talent, and I think Leeds is the clearly better side. Back the Peacocks to take all three points at home.

Pick: Leeds ML (+105 via Bet365)

West Ham vs. Bournemouth

Cunningham: This is a perfect spot for a West Ham blow out. Last two matches against Southampton and Liverpool, West Ham has created over four xG  and have only scored once. You look at their schedule lately and you see teams that sit back in a low block. Against Fulham they had 3.3 xG created and they generateed 2.1 xG against Southampton. 

West Ham have created 9.6 xG against bottom-half teams and allowed 4.3 xG in six matches. So, they are able to get margin from a chance-creating standpoint against bad teams. 

The offensive regression is starting to hit for Bournemouth. Going into the Southampton match on Wednesday they had 5.9 xG created but scored 10 goals. The Cherries ended up creating a little over one xG, but they were unable to find the back of the net. 

I know I have been saying their low block has been effective against non-big six sides, butt here are the non-big six sides they’ve played: Aston Villa, Wolves, Newcastle, Brentford, Nottingham Forest, Fulham and Southampton.

Only one of those offenses is on par with the current West Ham that we are seeing and it’s Newcastle, who were able to create two xG, get off 19 shots and generate 41 touches in the penalty area. 

I am expecting something similar from West Ham given the form that they are in, so I’ll take them -1 at -110 or better.

Pick: West Ham -1 (-107 via BetRivers)