Premier League Betting Picks, Preview & Predictions: Our 4 Best Bets, Featuring Brighton vs. Chelsea

It's time for more non-stop Premier League action, as the schedule becomes even more congested with the World Cup looming.

BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.

Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the midweek Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way. They'll also provide their individual model projections for the games.

If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.

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Cunningham's Model Projections

Dabbundo's Model Projections

Brighton vs. Chelsea

Dabbundo: This is a brutal spot for Chelsea. Saturday is the Blues’ fifth away match in 18 days and they haven’t played particularly well in any of their recent matches.

Chelsea are unbeaten in their last four matches in all competitions, but they conceded more than 1.3 expected goals (xG) to Aston Villa, Brentford and RB Salzburg. Chelsea also struggled to create much of anything in attack at home against Manchester United until a late penalty to Jorginho. 

Manager Graham Potter has tried a bunch of different formations and player roles to varying degrees of success. When he doesn’t have elite wide player Reece James at his disposal and the midfield and defense deals with injury issues, the Blues are quite limited in reaching their ceiling.

They’re unbeaten under Potter but the underlying numbers are mixed. He’s managed five Premier League matches and they’ve been exactly even in non-penalty xG difference across those matches.

Brighton hired Roberto De Zerbi and haven't seen a drop-off in their performances at all. The Seagulls haven’t won yet under their new manager, but they’ve played considerably better than the results indicated. An away draw at Liverpool, a 50% field tilt against Manchester City and an evenly played game with Spurs and at Brentford suggest that the Seagulls are more than capable of beating Chelsea on Saturday. 

My projections make Brighton a home favorite. They’ve had the better underlying numbers all season and the talent gap on paper isn’t enough to make Chelsea a favorite on the road. 

Pick: Brighton – Draw No Bet (+110 via DraftKings)

Bournemouth vs. Tottenham

Dabbundo: Much like Chelsea, Tottenham have not been at their best in the last month under Antonio Conte. Spurs played excellently down the stretch of last season with title winning form and a +1 xGD in the second half of the season.

This season, Spurs have a +4 xG difference after 11 league matches. That's not even really good enough to get a top 4 spot without some positive variance going their way.

The shot numbers have gone down for both Harry Kane and Heung-min Son. The ball progression and chance creation around them has also dropped off as both Dejan Kuluvsevki and Richarlison are injured. They don’t have enough creative and progressive passing in the team and the result is that a defensive low block has stymied them for large parts of this season. 

If Spurs aren’t able to thrive in transition or create off set pieces, they don’t create much at all. Bournemouth have the worst attack in the league and will struggle to create much of anything against Spurs excellent penalty area defense.

The Cherries have 10 goals but have only produced 7 xG this season. They produce two fewer shots and one fewer shot on target than every team in the league, so don’t expect them to take advantage of Spurs’ passive defensive approach without the ball.

Bournemouth will sit deep, defend at home and try to make it really difficult to break them down. Spurs aren’t in form or creating enough at the moment, and for that reason I like the under 2.5 at -110 or better. 

Pick: Under 2.5 (-110 via Bet365)

Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest

Cunningham: I think this total is a tad inflated because of how bad Nottingham Forest’s defense has been on paper. You are starting to see a lot of that  positive regression come Nottingham Forest’s way after teams in the beginning of the season were finishing at an insane rate against them.

Nottingham Forest have only allowed one goal from open play in their last four matches and it was an Ashley Young banger that was unsaveable. They did allow four big scoring chances to Liverpool, and Brighton created over two xG against them, so Arsenal could find success.

However, Arsenal is playing much more conservative when they go ahead, which they’ve always really done under Arteta. That was evident in the Southampton and Leeds matches. From an even game state or when they’re playing with a lead, Arsenal is allowing only 0.98 xG per 90 minutes.

They have also been the second best defense in the Premier League behind Manchester City, allowing only 0.81 npxG allowed per match.

I have 2.83 goals projected for this fixture, so I like the value on the under of 3 at +115.

Pick: Under 3 (+115 via BetRivers)

Manchester United vs. West Ham

Cunningham: Manchester United have looked much better in their last two matches against Tottenham and Chelsea, there is no denying that.

But, let’s poke some holes in their last two performances. Defensively they were outstanding. A combined 0.9 xG allowed from open play against Tottenham and Chelsea is nothing to snuff at. It’s because Casemiro is starting to play at an extremely high level, which allows Fred and others to play more forward and press higher. 

However, in their last two matches they created 2.3 xG off of 43 shots, an inefficient number and not good news when you have to face West Ham’s effective low block. 

West Ham had a bad start to the season. They got dominated by Manchester City, lost at Nottingham Forest and then got outplayed by Brighton at home. In those three matches they allowed 5.2 xG, but they did allow two penalties in those three fixtures.

Since then, only one team in the Premier League has created over one xG against them and it was Liverpool. West Ham is now second in the Premier League in npxG, allowing only 0.80 per match and ever since those first three matches, they’ve allowed just five big scoring chances. 

David Moyes' team is playing just the way he wants them to with a low block that has been incredibly effective. West Ham is dead last in PPDA, they’re playing one of the lowest average defensive lines, and their field tilt is 44.8%.

I only have Manchester United projected as a +117 favorite at home, so I like the value on West Ham +0.5 at +123.

Pick: West Ham +0.5 (+123 via BetRivers)