We are less than two months away from the start of the Premier League season, when Manchester City kick things off against Burnley on August 11th.
Some books have started to post futures odds, and bet365 has already released a full menu of futures odds on all sorts of different markets. Of course there is still a ton to sort out in the transfer window, such as the Declan Rice saga, Moises Caicedo and more that will have a drastic effect on certain clubs' odds of the title, top four and top six.
However, I was looking through the odds for the Golden Boot – awarded to the player who scores the most league goals – and there was one name that caught my eye at a price that is way too high.
Premier League Futures – Alexander Isak to win the Golden Boot- (40/1 via bet365)
I am not kidding when I say that Isak is the third-most talented striker in the Premier League behind Erling Haaland and Harry Kane. He is the prototypical striker that can do everything and has been highly touted for a long time, all the way back to his days at Borussia Dortmund before he moved to Real Sociedad.
Isak scored 10 goals in 22 appearances last year and his xG per 90 scoring rate was only 0.49. You could make the argument that it was a disappointing season for him. However, he was ninth in the Premier League and second on the team behind Callum Wilson in xG per 90. The duo trailed Haaland at 0.84.
If you dive deep into Wilson's metrics before and after Isak arrived, you'll find that manager Eddie Howe favored Isak over Wilson as Newcastle's first choice number nine.
Isak went through a stretch in March and April where he showed exactly what his peak can be. He scored seven goals in six matches from all sorts of ridiculous angles and outperformed his xG over that time span. Isak then did go through a scoring drought, not scoring over his last seven matches of the season.
Alex Isak 22/23 ~ Homecoming#NUFCpic.twitter.com/5xYbaOcrv0
— zak (@zknufc) June 25, 2023
Things are going to change for Newcastle this season. They are in the Champions League for the first time in 20 years and opposing teams are not going to allow them to play a transitional type of match like they want to play. Newcastle are going to be forced to break down a lot of low blocks, which means Isak is going to be favored over Wilson – who is more of a get in behind type of forward rather than your traditional number nine.
Signing Sandro Tonali will also allow Bruno Guimarães to get forward more and supply Isak in the last line. The competition with Wilson for the number nine spot does put a damper on this, but given Howe favoring Isak over the second half of last season and given Wilson is now 31-years old and injury prone, I do expect Isak to be the first choice striker.
Isak also has incredible ability to progress the ball up the pitch, so even if Howe decides to start Wilson up top, Isak will be in the lineup playing on the left given his dribbling and passing ability.
The Golden Boot market in the Premier League is a little depressing because of Haaland, but if you remember, Haaland went through a big scoring drought in the middle of the season last year where he scored just five goals over a 12-match stretch.
Even with the up and down first season where he only played 16.9 90s, Isak was ninth in xG per 90 minutes in the Premier League, yet he is sitting 12th on the odds board at a very good price.
Isak will be entering his prime at age 24 and is poised for a breakout season. If he can find that peak he had from March to April of last year and do it over a full season, he will rival Haaland for the Golden Boot.
I love Isak for the Golden Boot at 40/1 at bet365 and I also love him to score 25+ goals at 14/1, which is also available at bet365.
