Watford vs. Manchester City Odds, Picks: Betting Predictions for Tuesday’s (July 21) Premier League Match

Man City at Watford Odds, Pick

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Watford caused quite a commotion on Sunday when they announced that they had sacked manager Nigel Pearson despite the fact that there are just two matches remaining, and the Hornets are in the middle of a relegation battle with Aston Villa.

The Hornets appointed Hayden Mullins as the interim manager for their final two matches. The 41-year-old is Watford's fourth manager this season. Mullins will make his debut as a +750 underdog against Pep Guardiola's Manchester City.

The one thing that Mullins and the Hornets have going for them is that City have nothing to play for in this match outside of pride. The opposite is true of Watford, who can virtually guarantee themselves a place in the EPL next season if they can pull a shocker over City on Tuesday.

With Norwich City already relegated, there are two more relegation spots up for grabs between Aston Villa (31 points, -27 goal differential), Bournemouth (31 points, -27 goal differential) and Watford (34 points, -23 goal differential).

You'd think Watford's edge in goal difference should keep them up, especially over Bournemouth since the Cherries have just one match remaining, but Manchester City are capable of erasing that four-goal advantage before halftime.

City's offense has been prolific all season and it hasn't skipped a beat during Project Restart. The Cityzens are scoring 3.13 goals and generating 2.73 expected goals over their last eight matches.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

City's blowout potential adds a very interesting wrinkle to this match as Watford can not, under any circumstances, afford a rout on Tuesday. Against most teams that wouldn't be a problem, but City are not most teams. In fact, City have three 5-0 wins, one 4-0 win and a 3-0 win in their last eight matches.

Even though a win would basically seal the deal for Watford, I can't imagine that Mullins, in his first game as manager, will give his side orders to go out and try and beat City at their own game. Instead, I'd expect Watford to play ultra-conservative in the hopes of keeping City within a goal or two. That is easier said than done against a team that has made its cookies picking apart defenses through exquisite combination play and tidy passing.

City's motivation coupled with Watford's turmoil are keeping me from investing in either side on the moneyline or via the spread, but I do have interest in the Under at plus-money since I don't see this match turning into a hootenanny.

A couple of early goals from City could certainly change that, but I'd imagine Watford will throw 10 men behind the ball from the beginning and dare City to break them down as many times as they can in 90 minutes.

With everything on the line, I'm willing to put my faith in Watford to keep this game in check.