Brighton & Hove Albion vs Everton Odds
Brighton Odds | -270 |
Everton Odds | +650 |
| Draw | +420 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-174 / +142) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-120 / -102) |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
The Premier League has a rare three-match slate on Monday that features four of the main five contenders in the relegation battle.
The second game of the tripleheader is on the English south coast as Brighton hosts Sean Dyche's Everton. Brighton has two-to-three games in hand on most of its closest rivals in the table and will need to win all of them to have any real chance at a top-four or five finish in the league.
Everton could move out of the bottom three with a win, as the Toffees enter Monday one point behind Leicester City, Nottingham Forest and Leeds United.
You sometimes see the market inflate teams in must-win situations when fighting relegation, but that's not quite the case here for the Toffees. Based on my projections, the market still hasn't caught up to just how open Everton is defensively in order to generate a competitive attack.
Brighton
Brighton is one of the most open and aggressive teams in Europe right now. Brighton has allowed 1.7 xG to Bournemouth, 2.4 to Forest, 1.0 to Wolves, 1.4 to Manchester United and 1.4 to Brentford in the last two months.
Roberto De Zerbi wants to attack first and defend second. They've had problems giving the ball away high up the pitch in the last month and combined it with elite production in attack.
This was an issue against Manchester United in the Seagulls' last match, when Brighton had 11 high turnovers and conceded 1.4 expected goals. Against a more passive Everton, Brighton could be able to comfortably progress the ball up the pitch and then face a more set defense. But Everton changed its approach under Dyche and have been considerably more open and attacking than Dyche's Burnley teams.
It may seem hard to believe in a league that includes Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool, but Brighton has attempted more shots per match than anyone in the league. That's a testament to De Zerbi, because under Graham Potter, Brighton prioritized high quality shots from cutbacks and now they're getting far more shot volume than before.
The Seagulls are top four in big scoring chances and third in progressive passes, which will be an issue for a wide open Everton defensively.
Everton
Dyche hasn’t improved Everton much at all since taking over as manager. The lack of talent and production from the forwards has given Dyche no choice but to be more aggressive and commit numbers forward to try to score. The results of Dyche’s more aggressive process are clear in the numbers, and yet, the market is pricing Everton like a really bad attack.
Since Dyche became manager, Everton is 11th in xG created per match with 1.3 expected goals. The Toffees are also 18th in expected goals allowed, conceding 1.78 xGA per 90 under him. If not for an excellent Jordan Pickford shot-stopping season, Everton might already be relegated.
Everton is also considerably better when Dominic Calvert-Lewin is fit enough to start as the main striker. That's been a rarity this season, but he's been productive when on the pitch.
He's received 47 progressive passes in 11 90s and is getting 2.36 shots per 90 with an average shot distance of just 12 yards. His finishing has been really poor, thus, he only has two goals to show for it — but the 0.04 goals per shot shows that positive regression and goals are coming.
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Everton Pick
Everton's last game on the road at Leicester City was one of the most attacking and open matches of the entire PL season. There were two penalties, but both teams finished the game with more than three expected goals in a 2-2 draw. The narrative coming in was that Everton needed to defend deep and try to grind out the result — then the opposite happened.
The Toffees aren't going to be a good defense with their lack of midfield ball winning and middling center back talent. But with Brighton playing with little pressure and extra rest from Thursday, I'd expect De Zerbi to play his top choice attackers as well.
"Both Teams to Score Yes" is as low as -109 at BetRivers. I’d bet it at -120 or better. The market is slow to adjust to how both managers are changing the ways of past managers. The priors drag this total too low, in my view.
Pick: Both Teams to Score Yes (-120 or better) |
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