Brentford vs. Man City Odds
| Brentford Odds | +1600 |
| Man City Odds | -650 |
| Draw | +800 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+100 / -125) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 3:15 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | NBCSN | fuboTV |
| Odds updated Tuesday at 11:40 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
The Premier League's most dangerous team travels to Brentford for an important midweek clash as the league races towards the end of its festive fixture period.
City has won nine Premier League games on the bounce while Brentford has taken seven points from its last five games, and Pep Guardiola will be looking to guide his team to another safe victory.
Brentford and Man City last met in 1997, when City took home a 1-0 result in the FA Cup. The Bees suffered a disappointing 2-0 defeat to Brighton in its last fixture while the Cityzens were able to thwart Leicester City's comeback attempt in the end.
Here is where I believe the value lies in Wednesday's encounter.
Brentford Stable, but Looking for Consistency
After a run that saw Brentford lose four consecutive Premier League games in late October and early November, it felt like the Bees may be headed towards a relegation battle, but they've shown that it's not a likely outcome.
A five-game stretch of two wins, two losses and a draw has Brentford maintaining the type of form that a mid-table team would have. Though it's not exactly the type of level that the Bees want to be on in the long-term, avoiding a relegation battle in their first year back in the top flight would be an achievement.
Better yet, Brentford still isn't producing the type of results that xG would anticipate the team could get. In the Bees' 2-0 loss to Brighton, they actually amassed 0.2 more xG than the Seagulls. Though that doesn't compare to the 1.7 xG advantage Brentford held over Norwich in a 2-1 defeat, supporters will still be disappointed.
Manager Thomas Frank is still dealing with a depleted lineup due to COVID absences and a lengthy injury list, but Brentford has stepped up to the plate in big home matches thus far in the season, including a draw with Liverpool, a tight defeat to Chelsea (in which Brentford maintained an xG edge) and a win over a weakened Arsenal team.
However, this will be as tough a challenge as any of those fixtures and then some with the type of form that City is in.
Man City in Cruise Control
It's becoming more and more evident that Man City is on a runaway train that contains the Premier League title. The Cityzens are doing something that they've been accustomed to over the past five years which is go on a nearly unbeatable run of form.
Though City is only six points ahead of third-placed Chelsea, it's -400 to win the league, a testament to the respect that oddsmakers have to give a firing Man City team. At its best, only Liverpool has shown that it can go toe-to-toe in a title race, but the Reds need to be almost perfect to even push this squad.
Man City is on pace for 94 points in the league, which would be the fifth-highest points total in Premier League history. Of course, the three highest totals came in a two-year span between 2018 and 2020. Liverpool's 99 points in the 2019-20 season just edges City's 98 points and LFC's 97 points in the 2018-19 season.
There's no telling what City will finish with this year, but advanced metrics are daunting for rivals. The Cityzens lead the league in xG, xGA, goals for, goals allowed and total shots on goal.
Keeping pace with this team will be monumentally difficult once again.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Because of the prices that City is generating at this point, it's hard to back the club without getting a bit creative.
The last Brentford game to contain more than 3.5 xG was its contest against Liverpool, coming in September. Though the Bees have been a bit unfortunate this year, they have largely been effective as a defensive unit. Three of City's four prior away wins have featured four or less goals and four or less xG.
Those numbers and the current form of the two clubs point to a comfortable City win, but not one that I think will get completely out of hand. I'm going to make my top selection on the match a same-game parlay of City to win and under 3.5 goals.
While SGPs are tough to find great value on, at -115 this bet doesn't have much worse juice than the -102 that could theoretically be created by matching the two individual lines on their own.
Pick: Single Game Parlay — Manchester City to Win and Total Under 3.5 Goals (+100)
