Sunday Premier League Odds, Pick: Don’t Expect Brighton, Brentford To Find Goals in Boxing Day Clash

Brighton vs. Brentford Odds

A mid-table Premier League clash caps off Boxing Day matches, with Brighton & Hove Albion hosting Brentford in a Sunday clash at the American Express Community Stadium.

Brighton is currently in a bad run of form, as they haven't won an EPL match since Sept. 19 against Leicester City. Defensively, the Seagulls have been outstanding, but aren't creating chances at the level they were last season. That said, this is a perfect opportunity to get all three points and potentially push them back inside the top half of the table.

On the other side, Brentford hasn't played a league match since their 2-1 win over Watford on Dec. 10. They did play a Carabao Cup quarterfinal game against Chelsea on Wednesday, but suffered a 2-0 loss. So, least the Bees have gotten their feet wet after an extended break.

Much like Brighton, Brentford is sitting in the middle of the standings and really struggling to create chances. Needless to say, this is also a good chance for them to get three points and move back inside the top half of the table.

Brighton Still Struggling Going Forward

If we go back to when these teams met in September, it was a very cagey, low-event match that featured Leandro Trossard scoring from outside the box in the dying moments. In that game, there were only a total of 0.9 expected goals, 11 total shots and 34 total touches in the penalty area combined.

Now, the question is has much changed with either team since that point? I would say not really.

Offensively, Brighton is still struggling, averaging 1.01 NPxG per match and ranking 15th in big scoring chances, which isn't good considering that's how you beat Brentford. The Bees are sixth NPxGA and sixth in shots conceded per 90 minutes.

So, if the Seagulls are unable to create high-quality chances, I don’t see how they get on the board here at home. Brighton will also be without their best midfielder — Yves Bissouma — due to a yellow-card suspension. Bissouma has vital to the club's elite pressing.

Bottom line, Brighton needs to show some offensive life if they want to have any hope of finishing in the top half of the table.

Brentford Enduring Offensive Road Issues

Brentford is a big-chance-or-bust type of offense, as they’re currently 15th in shots per 90 minutes, but sixth in big scoring chances. Brighton is an elite defensive team, especially at preventing big scoring chances, allowing the third fewest this season.

Additionally, Brentford struggles versus teams that press them and Brighton is top five in PPDA and pressure success rate. So, it’s going to be difficult for the visitors to create a lot of high-quality chances. 

The Bees' form away from home hasn't been good this season. Brentford has put together -1.8 xG on the road, compared to a +3.3 xGDiff on home soil. They also have only created 8.6 xG in eight away matches, so going up against Brighton, who is top five in NPxG allowed, shots conceded per 90 minutes and big scoring yielded isn't the best matchup for manager Thomas Frank's men.

Betting Analysis & Pick

I really don't see how either of these teams are going to create any high-quality chances, given how elite both are defensively and how cagey the first match was.

I have the Both Teams To Score (No) line projected at -141 odds, so I like the value on the current line of -120 odds and will make it my top pick. 

Pick: Both Teams to Score — No (-120)